May 12, 2020 / 10:12 AM / a month ago

TABLE-China sees 2020/21 corn imports at 5 mln tonnes on rising trade with U.S.

    BEIJING, May 12 (Reuters) - China expects corn imports in the 2020/21 crop year to rise by 25% to 5 million tonnes,
showed an agriculture ministry forecast on Tuesday, thanks to attractive import prices and as it implements the Phase 1
trade deal with the United States. 
    The forecast is the first for the upcoming crop year that starts in October issued in the monthly Chinese Agriculture
Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE). 
    Corn consumption is also anticipated to grow slightly as hog production recovers and poultry output is relatively
high.
    Soybean imports in the new crop year are expected to rise by almost 3% to 93.6 million tonnes, despite sluggish
demand because of the coronavirus pandemic, thanks to good crushing margins for soymeal producers and on lower imports of
rapeseed meal.
    China, the world's top soybean buyer, brought in 24.51 million tonnes of the product in the first four months of the
year. 
    Planted acreage of soybean will rise 2.7% compared with last year, benefitting from government subsidies and surging
domestic prices, according to the release, while output will jump almost 4% to nearly 19 million tonnes. 
    Key numbers from the CASDE are below: 
    
                              2018/2019         2019/2020 April       2019/2020 May        2020/2021 May      Percentage
                                                   Forecast             Forecast             Forecast           change
    Corn - crop year                                                                                               
        Oct-Sept                                                                                             
  Planted acreage (mln          42.13               41.284               41.28                41.69             0.99%
       hectares)                                                                                             
  Output (mln tonnes)          257.17               260.77               260.77               266.51            2.20%
  Imports (mln tonnes)          4.48                 4.00                 4.00                 5.00             25.00%
    Consumption (mln           274.78                278.8               278.80               285.47            2.39%
        tonnes)                                                                                              
  Exports (mln tonnes)          0.02                 0.05                 0.05                 0.02            -60.00%
  Balance (mln tonnes)         -13.15               -14.08               -14.08               -13.98            -0.71%
  Soybean - crop year                                                                                              
        Oct-Sept                                                                                             
  Planted acreage (mln          8.40                 9.35                 9.35                 9.60             2.67%
       hectares)                                                                                             
  Output (mln tonnes)           16.00               18.10                18.10                18.82             3.98%
  Imports (mln tonnes)          82.61               87.68                91.00                93.60             2.86%
    Consumption (mln           102.93               105.51               107.10               111.12            3.75%
        tonnes)                                                                                              
  Exports (mln tonnes)          0.12                 0.15                 0.15                 0.15             0.00%
  Balance (mln tonnes)          -4.44                0.12                 1.85                 1.15            -37.84%
   Cotton - crop year                                                                                              
        Sept-Aug                                                                                             
 Beginning stocks (mln          7.43                 7.21                 7.21                 7.73             7.21%
        tonnes)                                                                                              
  Planted acreage (mln          3.37                 3.30                 3.30                 3.21             -2.70%
       hectares)                                                                                             
  Output (mln tonnes)           6.04                 5.80                 5.80                 5.68             -2.07%
  Imports (mln tonnes)          2.03                 1.70                 2.00                 2.00             0.00%
    Consumption (mln            8.24                 7.23                 7.23                 7.80             7.88%
        tonnes)                                                                                              
  Exports (mln tonnes)          0.05                 0.05                 0.05                 0.05             0.00%
   Ending Stocks (mln           7.21                 7.43                 7.73                 7.57             -2.07%
        tonnes)                                                                                              
   Sugar - crop year                                                                                               
        Oct-Sept                                                                                             
  Planted acreage (mln          1.44                 1.42                 1.42                 1.45             2.32%
       hectares)                                                                                             
          Cane                  1.21                 1.19                 1.19                 1.19             0.08%
          Beet                  0.24                 0.23                 0.23                 0.26             13.91%
  Output (mln tonnes)           10.76               10.40                10.30                10.50             1.94%
       Cane sugar               9.44                 9.01                 8.91                 8.96             0.56%
       Beet sugar               1.32                 1.39                 1.39                 1.54             10.79%
  Imports (mln tonnes)          3.24                 3.04                 3.04                 3.50             15.13%
    Consumption (mln            15.20               15.20                14.80                15.20             2.70%
        tonnes)                                                                                              
  Exports (mln tonnes)          0.19                 0.18                 0.18                 0.18             0.00%
  Balance (mln tonnes)          -1.39               -1.94                -1.64                -1.38            -15.85%
   Edible oils - crop                                                                                              
     year Oct-Sept                                                                                           
  Output (mln tonnes)           25.49               26.40                26.82                27.70             3.28%
      Soybean oil               14.31               15.27                15.80                16.34             3.42%
        Rapeseed                5.69                 5.63                 5.50                 5.66             2.91%
       Peanut oil               3.18                 3.17                 3.19                 3.31             3.76%
  Imports (mln tonnes)          8.55                 7.88                 7.88                 7.70             -2.28%
        Palm oil                4.95                 4.40                 4.40                 4.20             -4.55%
        Rapeseed                1.51                 1.40                 1.40                 1.40             0.00%
      Soybean oil               0.78                 0.75                 0.75                 0.70             -6.67%
    Consumption (mln            33.38               32.43                32.56                 33.82            3.87%
        tonnes)                                                                                              
  Exports (mln tonnes)          0.27                 0.27                 0.27                 0.27             0.00%
  Balance (mln tonnes)          0.40                 1.57                 1.87                 1.31            -29.95%
                                                                                                                   
     CASDE includes beginning and ending stocks for cotton, which Reuters assumes to include the cotton held by state
 reserves. Therefore, ending stocks cited in this table are the beginning stocks plus the latest year’s crop and imports,
 minus consumption and exports. For all other products, CASDE only includes the balance at the end of the crop year. This
                 appears to be the result of the crop output plus imports minus consumption and exports.
                                                             
 
    

 (Reporting by Min Zhang, Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton, additional reporting by Beijing Newsroom)
  
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