UPDATE 1-Global zinc concentrate market to flip to surplus in 2021, says Antaike

 (Adds graphic)
    Nov 12 (Reuters) - The global zinc concentrate market is
forecast to switch back to a surplus in 2021, after a
short-lived deficit this year, Chinese metals research house
Antaike said on Thursday.
    Rising production could return the world's zinc concentrate
market to a surplus of 82,000 tonnes in 2021, after
coronavirus-driven supply disruptions kept the market at an
estimated deficit of 151,000 tonnes this year, said Xia Cong,
the manager of the lead and zinc department at Antaike.
    "2021 will be the peak time for overseas projects to
increase and resume production. Taking COVID-19 into
consideration, it (production) will peak starting from the
second quarter or even from the middle of the year," Xia said in
a video of her presentation at the China International Lead and
Zinc conference in Chengdu.
    The market was also in surplus in 2018 and 2019, according
to Xia.
    The overseas supply decline this year dragged treatment
charges lower at smelters. 
    Spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate imported into
China AM-TC50-ZNCON fell from $305 a tonne in February, the
highest since May 2008, to $95 a tonne, the lowest since Sept.
2018, on Wednesday, as assessed by Asian Metal.
    China is forecast to have a zinc concentrate surplus until
2022, before switching to a deficit from 2023, Xia said.
    The refined zinc market could be in surplus globally until
to 2025, while the Chinese market is seen in surplus until 2021
before switching to deficit in 2022-2025, according to Xia.
    She estimated 2021 average zinc prices at $2,400 a tonne on
the London Metal Exchange (LME) and 19,000 yuan ($2,867) a tonne
on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE).
    Benchmark three-month LME zinc was at $2,620 a tonne
at 0641 GMT while ShFE's most-traded December zinc contract
 traded at 20,015 yuan a tonne.
    Zinc's sister metal, lead, could be in a deficit in China
this year of 28,000 tonnes but switch to a surplus of 77,000
tonnes in 2021, said Zhang Zhiwei, a senior analyst at Antaike, 
at the conference.
    Globally, the refined lead market is seen in surplus in both
2020 and 2021, Zhang added.
       Zinc concentrate (tonnes)
 Balance       2020               2021
 China     +202,000           +132,000
 World     -151,000            +82,000
         Refined zinc (tonnes)
 Balance       2020               2021
 China      +50,000           +110,000
 World     +290,000           +298,000
         Refined lead (tonnes)
 Balance       2020               2021
 China      -28,000            +77,000
 World      +21,000            +55,000
($1 = 6.6282 Chinese yuan renminbi)

 (Reporting by Mai Nguyen; additional reporting by Tom Daly;
Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Edmund Blair)