February 7, 2018 / 11:01 AM / 13 days ago

COLUMN-How to protect your nest egg in volatile times

 (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
    By Gail MarksJarvis
    CHICAGO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Investors may be feeling whiplash
after the biggest one-day percentage declines for the S&P 500
and the Dow Jones Industrial Average in over six years on Monday
coupled with Tuesday's rebound of about 2 percent for the major
indexes.
    Near-retirees like Christopher Sanford, who got spooked when
stocks on the S&P 500 fell 57 percent through the bleak market
years of 2007-09, do not know what to do protect their nest eggs
now.
    "I was caught by surprise in 2008 - like a deer in the
headlights - and I promised myself not to let it happen again,”
said Sanford, a 52-year-old auto mechanic from Buffalo Grove,
Illinois.
    The standard financial advice in volatile periods is to stay
the course and not look at your retirement account statements.
    It is a good time to ignore conventional wisdom, however, as
your portfolio may be far more exposed to stock market dangers
than you actually intend it to be. That is due to an almost 300
percent surge in the S&P 500 from the stock market low in March
2009 to the end of 2017.
    Mark Riepe, who heads the Schwab Center for Financial
Research, looked at what would happen if a moderately
conservative investor allocated 55 percent of their portfolio to
stocks and 45 percent to bonds, at the beginning of the recovery
on March 9, 2009, and then took the "set-it-and-forget-it"
approach that many of us follow. 
    Without any tinkering, 72 percent of the investor's money
would be allocated to stocks at the end of 2017, fueled by
strong market gains.
    Analysts do not think Monday's downturn is the start of a
bear market. That is generally defined as a decline of at least
20 percent and since 1903, has lasted about 19 months, according
to the Leuthold Group.
    
    PREPARATION SEEN AS KEY 
    But there will be a bear market at some point - they arrive
every five years on average.
    Preparing your portfolio for a bear market amid calm is a
key, said Riepe.
    "Focus on getting the job done whenever the portfolio is
sufficiently out of whack to justify it,” said Riepe.
    Just look at how steep losses could have been in various
portfolios during the last bear market.
    For example, a 100 percent allocation in stocks would have
meant losing more than half of your money. Dividing a portfolio
up 50/50 between stocks and bonds, by contrast, resulted in a 22
percent loss.
    If you work with a financial adviser, ask if they use
Riskalyze, an online service. That is one tool that can help you
envision the dollar loss you would have incurred in your
portfolio in the last downturn as well as the time needed to
recover.
    
    EYE ON COSTS
    Keep in mind that portfolio tweaks in brokerage accounts can
cost you in fees as well as taxes, so the approach is to make
changes in IRAs and 401(k)s that can be done free of capital
gains taxes.
    (You typically do not pay capital gains taxes in
tax-deferred accounts like IRAs and 401(k)s, although you may
have to pay fees for professional advice.)
    Financial advisers typically suggest that people keep money
out of stocks if it will be needed within five years to pay for
something like college, a house down payment, or retirement.
    For other money, they often suggest "rebalancing," or
cutting back on overdoses in stocks or bonds whenever they go 10
percent over original intentions.
    As logical as rebalancing sounds, people still have a hard
time springing into action. Sanford, for example, knew well
before this week that he needed to tweak his portfolio because
his son is in college and his savings are almost entirely in
stocks.
    With retirement about seven years away, Sanford is worried
about his nest egg as well as his health. 
    "My bones are tired, and I have arthritis in my fingers,” he
said.
    Riepe says he knows it is tough to stomach a big move away
from a winning investment.
    "It doesn’t have to be done all at once," he noted.
    If you have a 401(k), for example, simply stop putting new
money into stock funds. With each paycheck, route that money
into bond funds and money market funds.
    A caveat: bond funds can incur losses if interest rates rise
as some analysts now expect. Riepe said money market funds could
be an alternative for some of the bond allocation.

    
 (Editing by Beth Pinsker, Lauren Young and G Crosse)
  
 
 
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