November 2, 2018 / 11:24 AM / 19 days ago

CEE MARKETS-CEE currencies gain, shielded by euro

    By Radu-Sorin Marinas
    BUCHAREST, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
recovered on Friday after a one-day Nov. 1 market break, with
expectations the euro would in coming months lending them some
support.
    The euro is expected to strengthen and eventually to
rise over 2 percent to $1.16 in three months, according to a
Reuters poll. However, 80 percent of the strategists polled said
risks to predictions were skewed to the downside.
    Central and eastern European economies are deeply 
integrated with the euro zone.
    By 1050 GMT, the Polish Zloty, the Romanian leu
 and the Czech crown had all risen by 0.1
percent. Hungary remained closed on Friday for a
public holiday.
    Ceska Sporitelna/Erste analysts said the Czech central bank
still believes the crown's wandering around unusually weak
levels will end within a couple of months.
    The Czech economy is robust, but recent rate hikes have
failed to boost the currency. Market sentiment has turned gloomy
for currencies in emerging markets, for a host of reasons.
    Czech bond yields edged up after the central bank said it
was cutting its forecast for the 2018 state fiscal surplus to
1.5 percent of gross domestic product from an earlier estimate
of 1.6 percent.
     
          CEE         SNAPSHOT    AT  1200                     
          MARKETS                CET                  
                      CURRENCIE                                
                      S                               
                      Latest     Previous    Daily    Change
                      bid        close       change   in 2018
 Czech                  25.8100     25.8330   +0.09%     -1.04%
 crown                                                
 Hungary               321.9300    322.6000   +0.18%     -3.42%
 forint                                               
 Polish                  4.3240      4.3280   +0.09%     -3.41%
 zloty                                                
 Romania                 4.6621      4.6630   +0.02%     +0.38%
 n leu                                                
 Croatia                 7.4350      7.4345   -0.01%     -0.06%
 n kuna                                               
 Serbian               118.2100    118.2000   -0.01%     +0.25%
 dinar                                                
 Note:    calculated from                    1800              
 daily                                       CET      
 change                                               
                                                               
                      Latest     Previous    Daily    Change
                                 close       change   in 2018
 Prague                 1069.36   1070.5900   -0.11%     -0.82%
 Budapes               37155.21    37155.21   +0.00%     -5.64%
 t                                                    
 Warsaw                 2192.82     2151.88   +1.90%    -10.90%
 Buchare                8544.43     8560.18   -0.18%    +10.20%
 st                                                   
 Ljublja                 813.55      794.89   +2.35%     +0.89%
 na                                                   
 Zagreb                 1776.87     1779.13   -0.13%     -3.58%
 Belgrad                 739.85      740.42   -0.08%     -2.63%
 e                                                    
 Sofia                   595.87      596.58   -0.12%    -12.04%
                      BONDS                                    
                      Yield      Yield       Spread   Daily
                      (bid)      change      vs Bund  change in
 Czech                                                spread
 Republi                                              
 c                                                    
                         1.5920      0.0400   +223bp      +2bps
 2-year                                            s  
                         1.8530      0.0050   +202bp      -2bps
 5-year                                            s  
          <CZ10YT=RR     2.1510      0.0340   +172bp      +0bps
 10-year  >                                        s  
 Poland                                                        
                         1.5930      0.0370   +223bp      +2bps
 2-year                                            s  
                         2.4670     -0.0050   +263bp      -3bps
 5-year                                            s  
          <PL10YT=RR     3.2030     -0.0040   +278bp      -4bps
 10-year  >                                        s  
          FORWARD     RATE       AGREEMENT                     
                      3x6        6x9         9x12     3M
                                                      interbank
 Czech            <P       2.05        2.20     2.35       1.82
 Rep      RIBOR=>                                     
 Hungary          <B       0.32        0.61     0.96       0.16
          UBOR=>                                      
 Poland           <W       1.76        1.82     1.88       1.72
          IBOR=>                                      
 Note:    are for ask prices                                   
 FRA                                                  
 quotes                                               
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 (Editing by Larry King)
  
 
 
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