Reuters logo
CEE MARKETS-Leu steady after lower-than-expected CPI data
September 12, 2017 / 7:50 AM / a month ago

CEE MARKETS-Leu steady after lower-than-expected CPI data

    BUDAPEST, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The Romanian leu
held steady after lower-than-expected inflation data on Tuesday,
which confirmed that the pace of price growth across the region
remains moderate.
    Romanian consumer price inflation slowed to 1.2
percent on the year in August, from July's 1.4 percent, below
market expectations for 1.5 percent, helped by a robust fall in
food prices.
    All analysts polled by Reuters expect the Romanian central
bank to keep interest rates on hold at a record low 1.75 percent
at its next meeting on Oct. 3. Five out of eight see higher
rates by the end of the first quarter of 2018.
    "CPI below consensus should be positive for Romanian
government bonds. Hence, mildly positive for the leu as bonds
could catch up a bit with regional sovereign debt markets," said
Ciprian Dascalu, chief economist at ING Bank in Romania.
    Other central European currencies were also steady in early
trade, although analysts expect the Czech crown to
resume its firming trend, started after the central bank
abandoned a cap that had kept the unit from appreciating.
    "EUR/CZK continues trading around 26.1, a level it reached
in July as the appreciation trend following the FX regime
abandoning faded," said analyst Wolfgang Ernst said at RBI in
Vienna.
    "Still, at these levels we would regard CZK as undervalued
and we would expect the appreciation trend to continue over the
coming months until EUR/CZK has neared in on a fair value around
25," he said.
    A Reuters poll conducted last week indicated that the crown
would lead currency gains in Central Europe in the next 12
months as the Czech central bank, the first in the region to
start tightening, raises interest rates.
    The crown has gained about 3.5 percent against the euro
since April, when the Czech central bank (CNB) abandoned a cap
that had kept it at 27 to the euro or weaker for years.
    Meanwhile, Hungary's central bank, the most dovish in the
region, could decide to ease monetary conditions even further at
its meeting next week, to combat stubbornly low inflation after
what it sees as a temporary jump in August and September.

                    CEE         SNAPSHOT   AT  0920 CET            
                    MARKETS                                 
                                CURRENCIES                         
                                Latest    Previous  Daily   Change
                                bid       close     change  in 2017
 Czech crown                     26.0910   26.0925   +0.01    3.51%
                                                         %  
 Hungary forint                 306.7000  306.5600  -0.05%    0.69%
 Polish zloty                     4.2500    4.2475  -0.06%    3.62%
 Romanian leu                     4.5985    4.5983   +0.00   -1.38%
                                                         %  
 Croatian kuna                    7.4420    7.4385  -0.05%    1.52%
 Serbian dinar                  119.3100  119.4400   +0.11    3.39%
                                                         %  
 Note: daily        calculated  previous  close at  1800           
 change             from                            CET     
                                STOCKS                             
                                Latest    Previous  Daily   Change
                                          close     change  in 2017
 Prague                          1029.67   1023.43   +0.61   +11.73
                                                         %        %
 Budapest                       38019.13  37895.85   +0.33   +18.80
                                                         %        %
 Warsaw                          2520.45   2513.44   +0.28   +29.39
                                                         %        %
 Bucharest                       8068.85   8058.72   +0.13   +13.89
                                                         %        %
 Ljubljana                        811.05    809.53   +0.19   +13.02
                                                         %        %
 Zagreb                             0.00   1881.44   +0.00  -100.00
                                                         %        %
 Belgrade                           0.00    728.73   +0.00  -100.00
                                                         %        %
 Sofia                            704.74    700.46   +0.61   +20.17
                                                         %        %
                                BONDS                              
                                Yield     Yield     Spread  Daily
                                (bid)     change    vs      change
                                                    Bund    in
 Czech Republic                                             spread
   2-year                              0         0   +075b    -1bps
                                                        ps  
   5-year                         -0.033    -0.053   +032b    -7bps
                                                        ps  
   10-year          <CZ10YT=RR     0.948     0.015   +060b    +0bps
                    >                                   ps  
 Poland                                                            
   2-year                          1.673    -0.006   +242b    -1bps
                                                        ps  
   5-year                          2.534     0.016   +289b    +0bps
                                                        ps  
   10-year          <PL10YT=RR     3.191     0.016   +284b    +0bps
                    >                                   ps  
                    FORWARD     RATE      AGREEMENT                
                                3x6       6x9       9x12    3M
                                                            interba
                                                            nk
 Czech Rep                  <P      0.71      0.85    0.95        0
                    RIBOR=>                                 
 Hungary                    <B      0.11      0.12    0.14     0.14
                    UBOR=>                                  
 Poland                     <W      1.77     1.776   1.805     1.73
                    IBOR=>                                  
 Note: FRA quotes   are for                                        
                    ask prices                              
 
 (Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Gergely Szakacs;
Editing by)
  
 
 

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below