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UPDATE 1--Currencies on roller coaster as U.S. vote count swings; OTP shares shine

 (Updates markets, adds comment on Polish stocks fall)
    By Anita Komuves and Krisztina Than
    BUDAPEST, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
initially weakened, then regained some ground on Wednesday,
tracking the dollar amid uncertainty over the U.S. presidential
election, with results so far much closer than polls had
predicted.
    Stock markets were mixed, with Budapest's main BUX index
 jumping by 2.3% and Prague rising 0.4%. Shares in
Hungarian OTP Bank extended its gains from Tuesday,
rising 1.3%.  
    Warsaw's main index, however, fell by almost 2%,
which some analysts said was caused by concern about the record
numbers of Covid cases and profit taking by some players.
    Investors initially bet that a possible Democratic sweep by
Joe Biden could ease political risk and provide a huge boost to
fiscal stimulus. The mood quickly changed as incumbent President
Donald Trump snatched Florida and ran much closer in other
battleground states than polls had predicted.
    By 1314 GMT, Biden was back as favourite to win the election
in online betting markets, a reversal of fortune for Trump,
according to data from three aggregators. nL1N2HQ18Z  
nL1N2HQ0NZ
   "The market is in wait-and-see-mood -- there is huge
volatility," said a Warsaw-based currency trader. 
    While local factors have been overshadowed by the election,
investors are also watching lockdown measures across Central
Europe as the region struggles to contain a surge in coronavirus
infections. 
    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced tighter
measures late on Tuesday to curb the spread of the pandemic,
imposing a night-time curfew.
    Some analysts said that may not be enough to avoid straining
hospital capacities.
    "Hungary has piled up large stocks of ventilators during the
spring wave, but health care staff capacities remain limited,
which in our view suggests that more tightening measures may be
needed unless the government opts to take the political
consequences of a sharp rise in Covid-related deaths," Citibank
said in a note.
    The National Bank of Hungary will release the minutes of its
October meeting at 1300 GMT. The Czech central bank meets on
Nov. 5. 
    The bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, a Reuters poll
showed. The main two-week repo rate stands at 0.25% after the
central bank slashed it by 200 basis points in the spring to
help the economy during the pandemic.
    Poland's monthly Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting was
moved to Friday from Wednesday. Analysts had expected the MPC to
leave interest rates unchanged at near-zero levels.
    "If anything, we could witness additional QE volumes or
other lending support measures being announced," Commerzbank
wrote in a note.
    "Since the exchange rate has been weakening noticeably, we
doubt that the MPC will loosen policy more directly at this
meeting. We expect the zloty to remain weak," they added.
    The Polish zloty slipped 0.1% to 4.5446 versus the
euro while the Czech crown EURCZK= was flat. The forint was 0.3%
higher at 1124 GMT, reversing its earlier losses.
    
                    CEE       SNAPSHO   AT                      
                    MARKETS   T        1205              
                                       CET               
                              CURRENC                           
                              IES                        
                              Latest   Previou  Daily    Change
                                       s                 
                              bid      close    change   in 2020
 EURCZK=  Czech     <EURCZK=  26.8480  26.8500   +0.01%   -5.27%
          crown     >                                    
 EURHUF=  Hungary   <EURHUF=  362.250  363.500   +0.35%   -8.59%
          forint    >               0        0           
 EURPLN=  Polish    <EURPLN=   4.5446   4.5391   -0.12%   -6.34%
          zloty     >                                    
 EURRON=  Romanian  <EURRON=   4.8665   4.8636   -0.06%   -1.61%
          leu       >                                    
 EURHRK=  Croatian  <EURHRK=   7.5570   7.5595   +0.03%   -1.48%
          kuna      >                                    
 EURRSD=  Serbian   <EURRSD=  117.570  117.570   +0.00%   +0.00%
          dinar     >               0        0           
          Note:     calculated from             1800            
          daily                                 CET      
          change Latest   Previou  Daily    Change
                                       s                 
                                       close    change   in 2020
 .PX      Prague               860.32  856.510   +0.44%  -22.88%
                                             0           
 .BUX     Budapest            34612.6  33834.4   +2.30%  -24.89%
                                    3        3           
 .WIG20   Warsaw              1606.22  1636.28   -1.84%  -25.30%
 .BETI    Buchares            8693.53  8701.40   -0.09%  -12.87%
          t                                              
 .SBITOP  Ljubljan  <.SBITOP   824.03   810.73   +1.64%  -11.00%
          a         >                                    
 .CRBEX   Zagreb              1580.55  1579.18   +0.09%  -21.66%
 .BELEX1  Belgrade  <.BELEX1   698.16   701.77   -0.51%  -12.91%
 5                  5>                                   
 .SOFIX   Sofia                427.52   427.36   +0.04%  -24.75%
                                                                
                              Yield    Yield    Spread   Daily
                              (bid)    change   vs Bund  change
                                                         in
          Czech                                          spread
          Republic                                       
 CZ2YT=R    2-year  <CZ2YT=R   0.0430   0.0040   +084bp    +1bps
 R                  R>                                s  
 CZ5YT=R    5-year  <CZ5YT=R   0.5570  -0.0270   +137bp    -2bps
 R                  R>                                s  
 CZ10YT=            <CZ10YT=   0.9800  -0.0610   +162bp    -4bps
 RR       10-year   RR>                               s  
          Poland                                                
 PL2YT=R    2-year  <PL2YT=R  -0.0570  -0.0730   +074bp    -7bps
 R                  R>                                s  
 PL5YT=R    5-year  <PL5YT=R   0.3190  -0.0370   +114bp    -3bps
 R                  R>                                s  
 PL10YT=            <PL10YT=   1.1340  -0.0410   +177bp    -2bps
 RR       10-year   RR>                               s  
                    FORWARD                                     
                              3x6      6x9      9x12     3M
                                                         interba
                                                         nk
          Czech                  0.27     0.22     0.24     0.35
          Rep       <PRIBOR=                             
                    >                                    
          Hungary                0.86     0.88     0.91     0.77
                                                         
          Poland                 0.13     0.12     0.11     0.22
                                                         
          Note:     are for ask                                 
          FRA       prices                               
          quotes                                         
          *********************************************         
          *****************                              
 
    

 (Additional reporting by Karol Badohal in Gdansk; editing by
Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Larry King)
  
 
 
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