August 13, 2019 / 8:29 PM / 4 months ago

EMERGING MARKETS-Most Latam markets rebound on China relief, Argentine peso extends falls

 (Updates prices)
    By Susan Mathew
    Aug 13 (Reuters) - Most Latin American markets rebounded on
Tuesday as fears of further escalation in U.S.-China trade
tensions eased slightly after the United States delayed tariffs
on certain Chinese goods, while Argentina's peso continued its
slide on rising fears of a return to populist policies. 
    Equities and other risk assets across the globe took relief
from news that the U.S. administration will delay 10% tariffs on
certain Chinese products, including laptops and cell phones,
that had been scheduled to start next month.

    The Brazilian real reversed early losses to trade up
0.4%, while Mexico's peso jumped 1% ahead of a central
bank rate decision this week. 
    The bank is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate
steady on Thursday, according to a Reuters poll, even as
analysts increasingly brace for a possible rate cut to lift the
country's misfiring economy.
    Investors globally have been edge as a recent escalation in
the U.S.-China trade dispute, including the weakening of the
yuan past the 7-per-dollar mark, raised fears of recession.
    Shares in Mexico lost 1% in what could be their third
straight session of losses. Most other Latam stock markets
besides Argentina rose, between 0.4% and 2%.
    
    ARGENTINE UNCERTAINTY
    Argentina's main stock index joined the rally,
jumping 10% after having lost nearly 38% the day before when
opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez and running mate Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner won a stunning edge over incumbent
President Mauricio Macri in presidential primaries.
    The showing pointed to significantly reduced chances of
Macri being re-elected, and investors brace for a possible
return to interventionist policies if the opposition were to win
elections in October. 
    The peso fell over 4% to 55.9 to the dollar after
a near 16% plunge on Monday. The currency had fallen
to record low of 65 per dollar in the previous session, sending
shockwaves across global financial markets.
    "Key to watch will be how Fernandez tries to reduce market
uncertainty and to quell investor fears with his next
statements," wrote the EM team at TS Lombard led by Larry
Brainard.
    The central bank intervened on Monday to curb the peso's
free-fall, but the more the central bank spends to stabilize the
currency over the next two and a half months, the less it will
have to pay off major debt maturities in 2020, TS Lombard
analysts say.  
    "This could feed a vicious cycle that could end up punishing
both the country and investors during the next government," they
said, in a glum outlook for the beleaguered currency. 
    
    Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 2012 GMT:
    Stock indexes             Latest    Daily %
                                         change
 MSCI Emerging Markets          971.51      -0.3
                                        
 MSCI LatAm                    2695.00      1.56
                                        
 Brazil Bovespa              103299.47      1.36
                                        
 Mexico IPC                   39448.17     -1.01
                                        
 Chile IPSA                    4845.64      0.38
                                        
 Argentina MerVal             30308.93    10.091
                                        
 Colombia IGBC                12709.72      2.08
                                        
                                                
       Currencies             Latest    Daily %
                                         change
 Brazil real                    3.9668      0.42
                                        
 Mexico peso                   19.4117      1.00
                                        
 Chile peso                        705      1.28
                                        
 Colombia peso                  3409.8      0.43
 Peru sol                        3.384     -0.09
                                        
 Argentina peso                55.3000     -3.25
 (interbank)                            
                                        
 
 (Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru;
Editing by Marguerita Choy)
  
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