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EMERGING MARKETS-U.S. tax plans cast shadow over emerging FX, stocks gain
October 20, 2017 / 9:05 AM / a month ago

EMERGING MARKETS-U.S. tax plans cast shadow over emerging FX, stocks gain

LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Progress in U.S. tax reform plans lifted emerging stocks on Friday, but a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields scuppered currencies, which looked set for daily and weekly losses.

The U.S. Senate approved a budget blueprint for the 2018 fiscal year late on Thursday, paving the way for Republicans to seek a tax-cuts package without Democratic support, and resurrecting expectations that the reflation trade was back on track.

MSCI’s emerging market stock index rose 0.4 percent on the day. But after seesawing all week and despite hitting fresh six-year highs on Monday, the benchmark was still on track for a weekly loss of -0.4 percent.

Yet with the dollar index set for a 0.5 percent gain on the week, and U.S. Treasury yields rising steadily on prospects that lower tax rates would spur faster economic growth whilst ramping up inflationary pressures, emerging currencies felt the pinch.

“It’s mostly the global backdrop and particularly U.S. yields and the dollar, which are looking supported ahead of the Fed tightening at the end of this year,” said Sebastian Barbe, global head of EM research and strategy at Credit Agricole.

“This story of U.S. dollar strengthening is the main hurdle on the road of emerging markets getting back to a bullish outlook.”

South Africa - vulnerable to swings in U.S. borrowing costs due to its large external financing needs - saw its currency suffer some of the biggest losses.

The rand weakened 1.5 percent on the day and looked to ease nearly 3 percent over the week - the biggest such fall since early August.

Messy politics added to the woes of the African continent’s most industrialised economy after embattled President Jacob Zuma announced his second cabinet reshuffle in seven months earlier in the week, while a graft probe surrounding government relations with the Gupta family has been escalating.

“The market now seems more open to consider political fragility as something that could weigh on the currency,” said Barbe.

China’s yuan edged lower and looked on track for a 0.6 percent fall over the week, with investors nervously eyeing the twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress.

Speaking on the sidelines of the congress on Thursday, China’s central bank chief issued a stark warning about asset bubbles in the world’s second-largest economy, which looks set to clock its first acceleration in annual growth since 2010, driven by public spending and record bank lending.

Turkey’s lira was set to end the weak nearly 1 percent weaker in its six straight week of losses.

Across central and eastern Europe, currencies were treading water against the euro as investors awaited guidance from next week’s European Central Bank meeting.

The Czech crown hovered close to the four-year highs hit earlier in the week ahead of two-day elections kicking off later in the day.

Czech voters look set to hand power to billionaire businessman Andrej Babis, whose anti-establishment rhetoric has convinced voters he can fix the EU country’s problems, from graft to transportation.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2017, see tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see) Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg

on year

Morgan Stanley Emrg Mkt Indx 1121.18 +4.27 +0.38 +30.03

Czech Rep 1056.96 +4.18 +0.40 +14.69

Poland 2479.95 +12.46 +0.50 +27.31

Hungary 39029.65 -68.56 -0.18 +21.96

Romania 7999.59 -6.18 -0.08 +12.91

Greece 743.32 -3.13 -0.42 +15.49

Russia 1136.97 -1.67 -0.15 -1.33

South Africa 51754.02 +228.50 +0.44 +17.89

Turkey 09124.33 +690.78 +0.64 +39.65

China 3379.50 +9.33 +0.28 +8.89

India 32389.96 -194.39 -0.60 +21.65

Currencies Latest Prev Local Local

close currency currency

% change % change

in 2017

Czech Rep 25.72 25.72 -0.01 +5.00

Poland 4.24 4.24 -0.17 +3.80

Hungary 307.97 307.59 -0.12 +0.28

Romania 4.60 4.60 +0.00 -1.33

Serbia 119.10 119.17 +0.06 +3.57

Russia 57.58 57.26 -0.55 +6.41

Kazakhstan 335.42 334.57 -0.25 -0.53

Ukraine 26.50 26.50 +0.00 +1.89

South Africa 13.69 13.48 -1.52 +0.32

Kenya 103.20 103.40 +0.19 -0.80

Israel 3.49 3.49 -0.22 +10.24

Turkey 3.67 3.64 -0.77 -3.92

China 6.62 6.61 -0.09 +4.90

India 65.01 64.99 -0.03 +4.51

Brazil 3.17 3.17 -0.01 +2.74

Mexico 18.89 18.81 -0.44 +9.67

Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index

Sov‘gn Debt EMBIG 300 -3 .00 8 07.35 1

Reporting by Karin Strohecker, additional reporting and graphic by Claire Milhench; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle

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