MILAN, 17 marzo (Reuters) - Revenues at Italian companies could fall up to 17,8% this year as the rapid spread of coronavirus would have unprecedented impact mainly across tourism ad automotive sector, local credit rating agency Cerved said on Tuesday.
Under the worst-case scenario, which include a complete isolation of the Italian economy, the virus outbreak lasts for the whole year with a rebound expected next year but not enough to recover 2019 levels.
Cerved, which based his forecasts on the analysis of around 750.000 Italian companies, said long-lasting effects from the virus could lead to a fall of revenues of 650 billion euros in 2020-2021.
In a baseline scenario assuming the crisis would be resolved in May 2020, Italian companies would lose 7.4% of their revenues this year and will recover in the next year to above 2019 leveles with an estimated increase of 9.6%.
In the worst-case scenario the hotel industry is expected to drop 73% on revenues with respect to a 37.5% fall in a baseline scenario, while automotive and transport around 50% from 25%, Cerved said.
Reporting by Andrea Mandalà; editing by