April 8, 2010 / 7:49 AM / 9 years ago

UPDATE 2-Hungary's Fidesz maintains lead, far right gains

 (Adds new poll)
 BUDAPEST, April 8 (Reuters) - Hungarian centre-right
opposition party Fidesz has maintained its strong lead ahead of
an election on Sunday, while the ruling Socialists struggled to
stay in second place, according to three new surveys.
 The two-round election will be held on April 11 and 25.
 A survey published on Thursday by pollster Gallup showed
Fidesz slipping slightly from a week earlier. Support for the
ruling Socialists eroded to single digits as the far-right group
Jobbik took over second place, Gallup said.
 Another survey late on Wednesday by pollster Tarki showed
the backing for Fidesz among all voters rose to 42 percent,
while the Socialists dropped to 13 percent.
 A third survey by pollster Median published on Thursday also
showed higher support for Fidesz in late March.
 Median said Fidesz will likely have a two-thirds majority in
the next parliament, while the Socialists and Jobbik will be
neck and neck and the fourth party to get into parliament will
be green liberal LMP.
 In the Tarki poll LMP scored 5 percent, the parliament
threshold, while Gallup said it scored 3 percent.
 The far-right Jobbik party, whose popularity has surged in
the past year, widened its support, according to the three
pollsters.
 Tarki said turnout could be between 59 and 64 percent.
Gallup predicted 66 percent, in line with the 2006 turnout.
 Political analysts have said a low turnout would favour
Jobbik and possibly Fidesz and would be unfavourable for the
Socialists.
 
 All voters (figures in percentages of those polled):
 DATE       POLLSTER  Fidesz  MSZP  LMP   MDF Jobbik Won't vote/
                                                  undecided
 March 26-30   Gallup  41      9    3     1     11   34
 March 26-30   Median  47     13    3     2     11   N/A
 March 27-April 1
            Tarki   42     13    5     1     8    30
 March 27-April 2
            Szonda  38     12    3     1     8    36 
 March 18-22   Gallup  45     10    3     1     10   31 
 March 5-9     Median  41     15    1     1     11   N/A
 March         Szonda  35     12    2     1     10   38 
 -------------------------------------------------------------
                 Fidesz  MSZP  SZDSZ  MDF  Jobbik Won't vote/
                                                 undecided 
 Feb            Tarki   37     15    N/A   2     7    34 
 Feb            Median  44     14    N/A   1     9    N/A 
 Feb 2-9        Szonda  32     14    N/A  N/A    7    42 
 Jan 8-18       Tarki   35     12     1    2     6    43 
 Jan 8-12       Median  43     14     1    3     7    N/A 
 Jan 5-12       Szonda  35     14     1    2     7    40 
 Dec 4-7        Median  40     16     1    2     6    32 
 Nov 27-Dec 10  Tarki   37     11     1    1     7    40 
 Dec 1-7        Szonda  35     14     1    1     6    40 
 Nov 2-9        Szonda  35     12     1    1     6    43 
 Oct 8-22       Tarki   39     11     1    2     6    38 
 Oct 2-6        Median  44     13     1    2     8    30 
 Oct 1-8        Szonda  36     10     1    1     6    43 
 Sept 4-15      Tarki   36     11     1    2     6    42 
 Sept 4-8       Median  46     14     1    1     6    29 
 Sept 3-10      Szonda  34     13     1    1     6    42 
 ------------------------------------------------------- 
 NOTES - March and April figures include LMP, whose ratings
rose, while SZDSZ was dropped as its support fell below 1
percent. The last election was held on April 9 and 23, 2006.
 
 Smaller Parties: SZDSZ - Alliance of Free Democrats
 MDF - Hungarian Democratic Forum
 Jobbik - Movement for a Better Hungary
 LMP - Politics Can Be Different
 
 Decided voters (those with a party preference who will
vote): 
 DATE         POLLSTER   Fidesz   MSZP    LMP   MDF   Jobbik
 March 26-30   Gallup      63      14     4     2      17
 March 26-30   Median      60      17     4     2      17
 March 27-April 2
            Szonda      62      20     3     1      13 
 March 18-22   Gallup      67      15     4     1      14 
 March 5-9     Median      57      21     2     1      18 
 March         Szonda      57      20     3     1      17 
 ---------------------------------------------------------- 
                      Fidesz    MSZP  SZDSZ   MDF   Jobbik
 Feb           Tarki        61      22     N/A    2     11 
 Feb           Median       63      18     N/A    2     15 
 Feb 2-9       Szonda       58      22     1      2     14 
 Jan 8-11      Tarki        62      22     N/A    3     11 
 Jan 8-12      Median       65      19     0      3     10 
 Jan 5-12      Szonda       63      21     1      2     12 
 Dec 4-7       Median       61      23     1      2      9 
 Nov 27-Dec 10 Tarki        63      19     1      1     12 
 Dec 1-7       Szonda       63      21     1      1     10 
 Nov 2-9       Szonda       64      19     1      2     12 
 Oct 8-22      Tarki        68      17     1      1      9 
 Oct 2-6       Median       65      18     1      2     12 
 Oct 1-8       Szonda       65      17     1      2     11 
 Sept 4-15     Tarki        65      18     1      3     12 
 Sept 4-8      Median       67      18     1      1     10 
 Sept 3-10     Szonda       60      23     1      2     11 
 
 NOTE: The above may not add up to 100 percent as some
smaller parties are not included. Some figures have been
rounded. 
 (Reporting by Marton Dunai and Gergely Szakacs)

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