Oil Report

Russia unveils $2 trln energy growth plan to 2030

 * Energy Ministry details growth plan to 2030
 * Oil investment $609-625 bln, natural gas $565-590 bln
 * Oil output seen up 9-10 pct, gas output 33-42 pct
 * Asia to grab bigger share of exports
 By Robin Paxton
 MOSCOW, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Russia plans to invest up to $625
billion over the next two decades to raise oil production by
about 10 percent and a further $590 billion to add at least 33
percent to its gas output, the Energy Ministry said on Thursday.
 The oil and gas investment, part of a $2 trillion plus plan
to develop the Russian energy sector by 2030, also envisages
Asian markets taking a much larger share of Russia's exports as
the country develops resource fields in Siberia and the Far
 "This will allow the Russian energy sector to lower its risk
of being dependent on exports to one market, Europe," the
ministry said in a report published on Thursday, which details a
strategy that was proposed earlier this year. [ID:nLQ68990]
 Russia, the world's largest oil producer as Saudi Arabia
persists with OPEC-led output cuts, expects to boost crude oil
output to between 530 million and 535 million tonnes in 2030
from last year's 488 million tonnes.
 To meet this target, the country must replace depleted West
Siberian deposits with expensive new developments further east.
 East Siberian fields, which contributed only 3 percent of
Russia's oil production last year, will grow their share to 18
percent or 19 percent by 2030, the ministry said.
 The Energy Strategy-2030 plan envisages crude oil exports
largely flat within a range of 222-248 million tonnes by 2030,
compared with 243 million tonnes exported last year.
 Asia-Pacific markets, led by China, Japan and South Korea,
will raise their share of Russian crude oil and refined product
exports to 22-25 percent by 2030 from the current 6 percent.
 The ministry said projected oil investment of between $609
billion and $625 billion by 2030 would comprise $491-$501
billion on production and exploration, $47-$50 billion on
refining and $71-$74 billion on transport.
 Investment in the natural gas sector is projected at between
$565 billion and $590 billion. Transport -- including ambitious
pipeline projects -- contribute $277-$289 billion of this sum.
 Russia plans to boost natural gas production to between 885
billion and 940 billion cubic metres by 2030 from 664 bcm in
2008. Exports are seen rising to between 349 billion and 368
billion cubic metres in 2030, up 45-53 percent on last year.
 Asian markets are expected to boost their share of Russian
gas exports to 19-20 percent, from practically zero last year.
 Domestic demand for natural gas is forecast to rise between
32 percent and 40 percent to a range of 605-641 bcm, from 457
bcm in 2008, the ministry said in the report.
 It said "new" gas regions would increase their share of
Russian natural gas output to 38-39 percent from only 2 percent
last year. The Arctic region of Yamal should contribute 23-24
percent of the Russian total by 2030.
 Russia also plans to invest $68-$76 billion in the coal
industry to boost production to 425-470 million tonnes by 2030,
from 326 million tonnes last year.
 The Energy Ministry report included the following data:
 CRUDE OIL (million tonnes)
                    2008 (actual)      2030 (forecast)
 Production                488               530-535
 Domestic demand           236               275-311
 Exports                   243               222-248
 Asia-Pacific share
 of total exports*(pct)      6                22-25
 East Siberian share
 of total output (pct)       3                18-19
 * includes crude oil and refined products
 NATURAL GAS (billion cubic metres)
                    2008 (actual)      2030 (forecast)
 Production                664               885-940
 Domestic demand           457               605-641
 Exports                   241               349-368
 Asia-Pacific share
 of total exports (pct)      0                19-20
 Share of "new" regions
 in total output (pct)       2                38-39
 Source: Energy Ministry
 (Editing by Sue Thomas)
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