October 31, 2018 / 9:14 AM / 15 days ago

FACTBOX-Outlook for Japan nuclear restarts

    By Aaron Sheldrick and Osamu Tsukimori
    TOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Detailed findings from a Reuters
reactor-by-reactor analysis of Japan's nuclear sector show Japan
may get as few as six more reactors operating in the next five
years and will miss a government target to have 30 operating by
2030.
    The findings follow a reactor-by reactor review of all units
that have not won the final green light to restart, looking at
legal, disaster and political risks, along with a consideration
of upgrade costs.
    Reuters reviewed thousands of documents submitted to the
country's nuclear regulator, sent questionnaires to all
operators and interviewed industry professionals, lawyers and
other experts. 
    Nuclear operators say they have spent or will probably spend
4 trillion yen ($36 billion) on safety upgrades to meet the new
standards. 
    This includes building tsunami protection barriers, beefing
up buildings' seismic resistance, fireproofing wiring and
upgrading piping and other equipment.
    The following table lays out the prospects for restarts for
Japan's 38 reactors, based on the analysis. While the analysis
was being done, Tohoku Electric announced plans to decommission
the No. 1 reactor at its Onagawa station. The analysis had found
that the reactor was unlikely to restart.
    
 Reactor        Outlook    Comment           Upgrade costs
                                             
 Onagawa 2      Likely     In final stages   Tohoku Electric
                           of safety         says it has spent
                           review. Restart   172 billion yen on
                           possible next     Onagawa,
                           year              Higashidori units
                                             
 Mihama 3       Likely     Safety review     Kansai Electric
                           cleared,          says it has spent
                           lifetime          437 billion yen on
                           extended. Kansai  upgrades of
                           Electric aims to  Mihama, Takahama
                           restart in late   and Ohi plants
                           March 2020        
                                             
 Takahama 1     Likely     Safety review     As above
                           cleared,          
                           lifetime          
                           extended. Kansai  
                           Electric aims to  
                           restart in Oct    
                           2019              
                                             
 Takahama 2     Likely     Safety review     As above
                           cleared,          
                           lifetime          
                           extended.         
                           Restart May 2020  
                                             
 Shimane 2      Likely     Safety review     Chugoku Electric
                           proceeding        says it will spend
                           without hitches,  500 billion yen on
                           local support     its only nuclear
                           solid             plant
                                             
 Higashidori    Likely     Regulator finds   Tohoku Electric
                           no active fault   says it spent 172
                           after disputes.   billion yen on 
                           Tohoku aims to    Higashidori,
                           finish safety     Onagawa stations
                           upgrades by       
                           2021/2022, then   
                           restart           
 Tomari 3       Uncertain  Seismic           Hokkaido Electric
                           standards not     says more than 200
                           set. Hokkaido     billion yen on
                           prioritising      Tomari, its only
                           this unit but     nuclear plant
                           Sept quake may    
                           affect seismic    
                           assessments.      
                           Tsunami wall may  
                           need replacing    
                                             
 Onagawa 3      Uncertain  Tohoku has not    Tohoku Electric
                           applied for       says it spent 172
                           restart           billion yen on
                                             Onagawa,
                                             Higashidori units
                                             
 Hamaoka        Uncertain  Little progress   Chubu Electric
     Nos 3,4               on safety         cites costs of 400
                           review. Quake,    billion yen for
                           tsunami           Hamaoka; 22-metre
                           projections not   (72-feet) high
                           set. Near major   steel-concrete
                           tectonic plate    tsunami wall built
                           boundaries.       
                           Local governor    
                           says no restart   
                           while he is in    
                           power, term       
                           expires in 2021.  
                                             
 Tokai Daini    Uncertain  Cleared two       Japan Atomic
                           safety hurdles    expects to spend
                           and likely to     180 billion yen on
                           get 20-year       upgrades
                           extension in      
                           November.         
                           Damaged in 2011   
                           disaster,         
                           closest reactor   
                           to Tokyo, strong  
                           local opposition  
                                             
 Kashiwazaki-K  Uncertain  Tepco clears      Tepco expects to
 ariwa                     initial safety    spend 680 billion
     Nos 6,7               review. Very      yen on
                           strong local      Kashiwazaki-Kariwa
                           opposition.       upgrades
                           Station damaged   
                           in 2007 quake.    
                           Many consider     
                           Tepco unfit to    
                           handle nuclear    
                                             
 Tomari         Unlikely   Regulator         Hokkaido Electric
     Nos 1,2               focusing on       expects to spend
                           possible active   more than 200
                           faults right      billion yen on
                           beneath           Tomari station
                           reactors;         
                           September quake   
                           may affect        
                           assessments,      
                           tsunami wall may  
                           need tearing      
                           down              
                                             
 Fukushima      Unlikely   Government has    No costs for
 Daini                     called on Tepco   upgrades given by
     Nos 1-4               to decommission   Tepco
                           reactors.         
                           Narrowly averted  
                           meltdowns in      
                           2011 disaster     
                                             
 Kashiwazaki-K  Unlikely   Station damaged   Tepco expects to
 ariwa                     in 2007 quake.    spend 680 billion
     Nos 1-5               Local mayor       yen on
                           calling for       Kashiwazaki-Kariwa
                           decommission of   upgrades
                           at least one of   
                           the units in      
                           exchange of       
                           backing No 6 or   
                           7 restart         
                                             
 Hamaoka No 5   Unlikely   Seawater entered  Chubu Electric
                           reactor in 2011.  cites costs of 400
                           Next to major     billion yen for
                           tectonic plate    Hamaoka, 22-metre
                           boundary. No      (72-feet) high,
                           restart           steel-concrete
                           application       tsunami wall built
                                             
 Shika No 1     Unlikely   Regulator finds   The company says
                           possible active   to spend less than
                           fault beneath     200 billion yen on
                           reactor, which    Shika station
                           could force it    
                           to be scrapped    
                                             
 Shika No 2     Unlikely   Regulator finds   As above
                           possible active   
                           faults beneath    
                           reactor, which    
                           could force it    
                           to be scrapped    
                                             
 Genkai         Unlikely   Small unit, no    Kyushu Electric
     No 2                  application for   projects more than
                           restart made      900 billion yen on
                                              Sendai, Genkai
                                             upgrade costs
                                             
 Tsuruga        Unlikely   Regulator found   Japan Atomic
     No 2                  possible active   projects to spend
                           fault in 2015.    90 billion yen on
                           Japan Atomic      upgrades
                           contests finding  
                                             
 Onagawa No 1   Scrapped   Tohoku said on    Utility has spent
                           Oct. 25 it will   172 billion yen on
                           scrap unit.       Onagawa,
                           Reuters analysis  Higashidori
                           showed it was     
                           unlikely to       
                           restart           
                                             
 Takahama       Restarted  Both restarted    Kansai Electric
     Nos 3, 4              operations in     says it has spent
                           2017              437 billion yen on
                                             upgrades of
                                             Mihama, Takahama
                                             and Ohi plants
 Ohi Nos 3, 4   Restarted  Both restarted    As above
                           operations in     
                           2018              
                                             
 Ikata No 3     Restarted  Operations began  Shikoku Electric
                           again in 2016.    says to spend
                           Legal obstacles   about 190 billion
                           removed           yen on upgrades
                                             
 Genkai         Restarted  On first cycle    Kyushu Electric
     Nos 3,4               after restart in  projects more than
                           2018              900 billion yen
                                             for Sendai, Genkai
                                             upgrade costs
                                             
 Sendai         Restarted  First reactors    Kyushu Electric
     Nos 1,2               to start in       projects more than
                           Japan under new   900 billion yen
                           rules. Now on     for Sendai, Genkai
                           third cycle.      upgrade costs
 
($1 = 111.8600 yen)

 (Reporting by Aaron Sheldrick and Osamu Tsukimori; Editing by
Gerry Doyle)
  
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