December 21, 2017 / 10:15 AM / 6 months ago

Indonesia Nov palm oil exports likely fell on weak global demand -Reuters survey

    By Bernadette Christina Munthe
    JAKARTA, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO)
exports likely fell in November on weak demand from main markets
such as India and China, while production edged lower, a Reuters
survey showed on Thursday.
    CPO output fell to 3.90 million tonnes in November, from
3.95 million tonnes in October, according to the median estimate
in a survey of two industry groups and a state research firm. 
    The October output was the highest monthly figure since the
survey began in 2014. Indonesia is the world's top producer of
the widely used vegetable oil.     
    November exports were estimated to have fallen to 2.52
million tonnes in November from 2.75 million tonnes in October. 
    Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board,
noted a big drop in demand from Indonesia's top market India. 
    India's move to hike its palm oil import tax led a drop in
November imports to the lowest in eight months.
    Other markets were also showing weak demand, according to
the Indonesian Oil Palm Research Institute. 
    "China will not be active until next year for Lunar New Year
preparation. European markets and others were also sluggish,"
the institute said.         
    The Southeast Asian country exported 2.60 million tonnes of
palm oil and palm kernel oil in October, data from the
Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed last week.

    GAPKI data for November exports will be released in January.
    Indonesia's domestic consumption was estimated at around
989,550 tonnes last month, compared to 985,000 in October.
    The weaker exports have led to a stockpile build-up, with
palm oil stocks at end-November estimated at 3.60 million
tonnes, up from 3.14 million tonnes, the survey shows. 
    The November palm survey comprised responses from the
Indonesia Palm Oil Board, the Indonesian Oil Palm Research
Institute and Indonesia's Vegetable Oil Association.
    Below is a table of the median forecasts in the Reuters
survey for CPO output, exports and stockpiles, as well as the
GAPKI palm and palm kernel oil export data, going back to 2016.
Figures in million tonnes. 
            
 Month      Output   Exports  Inventories  GAPKI palm &
                                           kernel oils
                                           exports
 November     3.901    2.518        3.602            --
 October      3.949    2.750        3.144          2.60
 September    3.630    2.685        2.400          2.76
 August       3.587    2.714        2.600          2.98
 July         3.530    2.400        2.422           2.4
 June         3.200    2.200        1.300          2.13
 May          3.375    2.375        1.094          2.62
 April        2.904    2.162        1.306          2.57
 March        3.078    2.093        2.300          2.47
 February     2.800    2.406        2.000          2.53
 January      2.949    2.214        1.475          2.72
      2016                                             
 December     3.218    2.382        1.886          2.68
 November     3.310    2.221        1.786          2.84
 October      3.064    2.225        1.945          2.41
 September    2.900    2.000        1.738          1.73
 August       2.833    1.740        1.700          2.07
 July         2.802    1.875        1.875           1.6
 June         2.464    1.798        1.712          1.78
 May          2.188    1.919        2.100          1.76
 April        2.132    1.928        2.250          2.09
 March        2.150    1.895        2.592          1.74
 February     2.300    2.010        3.633          2.29
 January      2.440    2.005        2.025           2.1
    

 (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe; Writing by Fransiska
Nangoy; Editing by Tom Hogue)
  
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