March 26, 2018 / 8:27 AM / in 5 months

Indonesia's Feb crude palm oil fell after India import duty hike - Reuters survey

    By Bernadette Christina Munthe
    JAKARTA, March 26 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil
(CPO) exports in February are forecast to have declined from the
previous month, a Reuters survey showed on Monday, as India's
import duty hike reduced demand for the vegetable oil.
    Exports are forecast to drop to 2.48 million in February,
down 9.5 percent from 2.74 million tonnes in January, according
to the median of three responses in a survey of two industry
groups and a state palm oil research firm.
    Output from the world's largest CPO producer in February is
forecast to fall 2.7 percent to 3.49 million tonnes from 3.59
million tonnes, the survey showed.
     Survey respondents said the decision by India, a major
consumer, to hike the import duty on the edible oil took a toll
on exports.
    "Due to high import duty in India, exports to India were
seen declining...in February," Sahat Sinaga, chairman at
Indonesia's Vegetable Oil Association, told Reuters by phone.
"We hope March exports won't be lower than 2.4 million tonnes."
    Earlier this month, India raised import taxes on crude and
refined palm oil to the highest in a decade, prompting buyers to
cancel up to 100,000 tonnes of cargoes.
    
    Domestic use of the oil was expected to climb to 997,000
tonnes, compared with 924,000 tonnes in January, according to
the Reuters survey.
    The Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said Indonesia
exported 2.74 million tonnes of palm oil and palm kernel oil in
January.
    It also said Indonesia's stocks of palm oil at the end of
January stood at 3.62 million tonnes.
    A median figure in the Reuters survey showed a February
stockpile of 3.53 million tonnes versus 3.7 million tonnes in
January.    
    
    Below is a table of the median forecasts in the Reuters
survey for CPO output, exports and stockpiles, as well as the
GAPKI palm and palm kernel oil export data, going back to the
beginning of 2017. Figures are in million tonnes.    
    
 Month      Output   Exports  Inventories  GAPKI palm &
                                           kernel oils
                                           exports
 February      3.49     2.48         3.53            --
 January      3.586    2.737        3.701          2.74
 2017                                      
 December     3.519    2.512        3.200          2.62
 November     3.901    2.518        3.602          2.64
 October      3.949    2.750        3.144          2.60
 September    3.630    2.685        2.400          2.76
 August       3.587    2.714        2.600          2.98
 July         3.530    2.400        2.422           2.4
 June         3.200    2.200        1.300          2.13
 May          3.375    2.375        1.094          2.62
 April        2.904    2.162        1.306          2.57
 March        3.078    2.093        2.300          2.47
 February     2.800    2.406        2.000          2.53
 January      2.949    2.214        1.475          2.72
 
 (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe; Writing by Fransiska
Nangoy and Kanupriya Kapoor; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
  
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