October 27, 2017 / 5:53 AM / a year ago

Iran's crude, condensate exports to tumble to 19-month low in Oct

    * Oct crude, condensate exports at 2.09 mln bpd, down 19 pct
    * Exports to Asia down 9 pct m/m; Europe shipments tumble 39
    * Japan volumes jump; South Korea's purchases to roughly

    By Osamu Tsukimori and Florence Tan
    TOKYO/SINGAPORE, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Iran's total crude and
condensate exports for October are expected to tumble by nearly
a fifth from the previous month to a 19-month low, dented by
production issues, a person with knowledge of the country's
tanker loading schedule said.
    The hiccup in output from the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries' No.3 producer should help the cartel 
tighten global supply, supporting oil prices which hit a
27-month high this week on Saudi Arabia's resolve to end a
global oil glut.
    Shipments of condensate have dropped due to a "technical
problem" at the South Pars field, with maintenance work expected
to take up to two months to complete, National Iranian Oil
Company's Director of International Affairs Saeid Khoshrou told
Reuters in late September.
    The preliminary schedule for October shows a decline of some
800,000 bpd from a six-year high of nearly 2.9 million barrels
per day (bpd) in February. Tehran had been regaining market
share at a faster pace than analysts had projected since
sanctions were lifted. 
    Crude and condensate exports for October will be 2.09
million bpd, the lowest since March 2016, down from 2.57 million
bpd in September, the person said. The source declined to be
named as the information is confidential.
    The Islamic Republic was exempt from an OPEC deal to reduce
output, allowing the country to regain market share after
Western sanctions over its disputed nuclear programme were
lifted in January 2016.
    Exports to Europe are set to tumble 39 percent to 510,000
bpd in October from a month earlier, while loadings for Asia
will fall 9 percent to 1.47 million bpd, according to the
source. Exports to the Middle East will hold at 111,000 bpd.
    However shipments to Japan are set to jump 83 percent to
218,000 bpd in October from a month earlier, while shipments to
top buyer China will rise 2 percent.
    India is set to overtake South Korea as the No.2 buyer,
taking 377,000 bpd, the source said. South Korean loadings are
set to drop by 48 percent from a month earlier to 238,000 bpd,
which sources say is partly due to refinery maintenance season. 
    Belarus is taking its first barrels since February.
    Iran has been producing around 3.8 million bpd over the past
few months, according to a Reuters survey.
    The OPEC producer aims to raise its output capacity to 4.7
million bpd by 2021, Amir Zamaninia, Iran's deputy oil minister
for trade and international affairs, said last week.

    The following table shows monthly loadings of crude and
condensate at Iranian ports in barrels per day to global markets
and countries, as well as monthly percentage changes, according
to the source.
                          Asia         Oct        Sept    m/m
                         China     640,000     625,000      2
                         India     377,000     360,000      5
                         Japan     218,000     119,000     83
                   South Korea     238,000     456,000    -48
                        Taiwan           0      65,000   -100
                    Total Asia   1,473,000  1,625,000      -9
                   Middle East         Oct        Sept    m/m
                           UAE     111,000     112,000     -1
             Total Middle East     111,000     112,000     -1
                        Europe         Oct        Sept    m/m
                       Belarus      26,000           0    n/a
                        Greece      97,000      71,000     37
                         Italy     129,000     178,000    -28
                         Spain      32,000     137,000    -77
                        Turkey      97,000     277,000    -65
                        Other      129,000     173,000    -25
                  Total Europe     510,000     837,000    -39
    Total crude, condy exports   2,094,000   2,573,000    -19
              Offshore storage         Oct        Sept    m/m
       Iran's offshore storage      65,000      67,000     -3
 (Reporting by Osamu Tsukimori in TOKYO and Florence Tan in
SINGAPORE; Editing by Sonali Paul)
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