* Stockpile remains tight with only 1.24% monthly rise * Rise in output, exports smaller than expected -analyst * Production on a declining trend for Q4 2020 -brokers (Adds details, quotes, table) By Mei Mei Chu KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's end-September palm oil stockpile expanded 1.24% from the previous month to a three-month high, as a surprisingly small advancement in output and exports squeezed supply, according to industry regulator data on Monday. Inventories in the world's second-largest producer rose to 1.73 million tonnes, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said. Exports rose only 1.88% on-month to 1.61 million tonnes, according to MPOB data, much lower than cargo surveyors' estimates and a Reuters poll flagging a jump of between 6% to 11%. "The first surprise is export is surprisingly low ... Production is also lower than widely expected but stocks continue to be tight," said Sathia Varqa, co-founder of Singapore-based Palm Oil Analytics. Crude palm oil production also hit a three-month high, despite inching up only 0.32% from August to 1.87 million tonnes. Production may have already peaked in June and will continue to decline in the fourth quarter of the year, said Marcello Cultrera, institutional sales manager and broker at Phillip Futures in Kuala Lumpur. "We might get tighter on a supply basis," he added. Palm and other vegetable oils are facing a "very bullish scenario" as traders are mindful of the La Nina weather pattern hurting yields, said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn Bhd. "This bullish scenario in palm will continue unabated at least until the first quarter of 2021," he added. Following is a breakdown of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and Reuters estimates for September (volumes in tonnes): Sept 2020 Sept 2020 poll Aug 2020* Sept 2019 Output 1,869,339 1,953,350 1,863,309 1,842,433 Stocks 1,725,120 1,720,666 1,704,060 2,448,484 Exports 1,612,169 1,679,500 1,582,359 1,409,089 Imports 48,273 37,500 32,311 71,112 *indicates revised figures by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (Reporting by Mei Mei Chu; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.