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FACTBOX-Former government insider leading race to replace Mexico's Carstens -poll
February 8, 2017 / 6:05 AM / 10 months ago

FACTBOX-Former government insider leading race to replace Mexico's Carstens -poll

    MEXICO CITY, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Top economists think Mexico's
president may name Alejandro Diaz de Leon, a former finance
ministry official close to the administration, to replace
Agustin Carstens as the head of the central bank, according to a
Reuters poll.            
    Chief economists were asked who was most likely to be named
central bank governor. Diaz de Leon was named by six of 10 chief
Mexico economists at major banks with a median probability of 60
    Reuters also asked economists who they thought was the
second most likely nominee, where there was greater dispersion.
    Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade was named by three
economists with a median probability of 20 percent.
    *Eco=Economists, *PR=Probability
 Eco.  Most likely              PR   2nd most likely         PR
 1     Alejandro Diaz de Leon   50%  Jose Sidaoui            30%
 2     Alejandro Diaz de Leon   60%  Roberto del Cueto       30%
 3     Alejandro Diaz de Leon   70%  Jose Antonio Meade      20%
 4     Alejandro Diaz de Leon   75%  No response             
 5     Alejandro Diaz de Leon   30%  Miguel Messmacher       30%
 6     Alejandro Diaz de Leon   60%  Jose Antonio Meade      40%
 7     Miguel Messmacher        40%  Alejandro Werner        40%
 8     Miguel Messmacher        55%  Alejandro Diaz de Leon  45%
 9     Alonso Garcia Tames      15%  Miguel Messmacher       10%
 10    Alejandro Werner         40%  Jose Antonio Meade      20%
    Economists were also asked who would be named as a new
deputy governor in the case that a current board member is named
    Miguel Messmacher, the deputy finance minister who
implemented the tax structure of the country's energy reform,
was named by six of 10 economists, with a median 50 percent
 Bank   New board member       PR
 1      Jaime Cortina          50%
 2      Miguel Messmacher      60%
 3      Miguel Messmacher      70%
 4      Miguel Messmacher      50%
 5      No response            
 6      No response            
 7      Miguel Messmacher      40%
 8      No response            
 9      Miguel Messmacher      50%
 10     Miguel Messmacher      50%
    Economists were also asked in a follow up question whether
leading candidates were hawks, or more prone to act to fight
inflation, or a doves, less inclined to act.   
 Eco.  Diaz de Leon      Messmacher
 1     Neutral           No response
 2     Dove              Dove 
 3     Neutral           Hawk
 4     Neutral           Neutral
 5     Dove              Dove
 6     Hawk              Dove
 7     Dove              Neutral
 8     Hawk              Hawk 
 9     Neutral           Neutral     

 (Reporting by Michael O'Boyle; Editing by Bernard Orr)

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