February 3, 2017 / 10:33 AM / a year ago

EARNINGS POLL-Poland's Pekao Q4 net profit seen up 10 pct y/y

* Pekao Q4 results due Feb 9, before market open
    * Net profit seen rising on negative one-off a year ago
    * Net profit seen at 483 mln zlotys in Q4

    WARSAW, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Bank Pekao SA is expected
to post a 10-percent year-on-year rise in its fourth-quarter net
profit due to a statistical effect, but in quarter-on-quarter
terms the profit likely fell due to higher costs, analysts said.
    Pekao is expected to report a bottom line of 483 million
zlotys ($120.72 million) in the fourth quarter, according to an
average estimate of nine banks and brokerages.
    "The story of Pekao is similar to other banks - huge costs
in the fourth quarter of 2015 caused the year-on-year profit to
rise. So I would focus on the quarterly change," Michal
Sobolewski, an analyst with BOS brokerage said.
    In the fourth quarter of 2015 Pekao was forced to contribute
around 250 million zlotys to bank guarantee funds after the
collapse of one of the smallest banks in the sector, SK Bank. 
    Banks have to help to refund deposits of bankrupt banks via
the bank guarantee funds, according to Polish law.
    In comparison with the third quarter of 2016, Pekao suffered
a seven-percent net profit fall, because of a seasonal rise in
costs, analysts said.
    "Pekao results are usually in line with expectations so I
wouldn't expect a surprise this time. The most important thing
is whether new owners introduced changes in the bank or not. And
details about the dividend, of course," Sobolewski said.
    Pekao used to be a unit of UniCredit, but in
December last year state-run insurer PZU and the PFR
fund agreed to buy a 32.8-percent controlling stake in the bank
and other assets for 2.54 billion euros ($2.73 billion).
    The forecasts would put Pekao's net profit for the whole
2016 year at 2.27 billion zlotys.
    The following table summarises market forecasts for 
Pekao. (Figures in millions of zlotys unless stated).
                FOURTH QUARTER OF 2016 
               Net Profit  Net Interest  Net Fee    Net
                             Income      Income   provisions 
  Average         483        1117         495        135
  Median          484        1117         495        134
  Lowest          451        1105         490        127
  Highest         521        1131         500        142
 No. of f'casts    9           9           9          9
  Q4 2015         438        1061         504        119
  Q3 2016         521        1117         490        141
 Forecasts provided by: DM BOS, Erste Securities, Haitong IB, DM
Trigon, Ipopema Securities, Citigroup, Wood & Co., DM BZ WBK,
and PKO BP.
 ($1 = 4.0010 zlotys)

 (Reporting by Marcin Goclowski; Editing by Marcin Goettig)
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