February 6, 2019 / 2:03 PM / 5 months ago

UPDATE 1-Russian inflation speeds up in January but below forecast

 (Adds detail)
    MOSCOW, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Consumer inflation in Russia
accelerated in January but fell short of a Reuters consensus
forecast, data showed on Wednesday, underpinning market
expectations that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest
rates this week.
    Russia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.0 percent in
January year-on-year after climbing 4.3 percent in the previous
month, data from the Federal Statistics Service showed.
    Analysts and economists polled by Reuters had predicted a
5.2 percent increase in CPI in January.
    Growth in consumer prices, the central bank's main remit,
was widely expected to speed up this year because of a planned
increase in value-added tax and the pass-through effect of the
weaker rouble.
    The increase in annual inflation is so far below the central
bank's assumption that it could reach up to 6 percent in the
first quarter.
    The bank, which raised rates twice last year in a preemptive
step to counter risks of higher inflation, is widely expected to
keep its key interest rate on hold at 7.75 percent at its next
board meeting on Friday.
    The data showed the increase in the headline CPI reading was
driven by a higher pace of growth in its main components.
    Food prices jumped 1.3 percent year-on-year in January after
a 0.5 percent rise in the same period a year ago, while services
prices rose 1.1 percent compared with 0.1 percent in January
    In month-on-month terms, inflation was at 1.0 percent in
January 2019, up from 0.8 percent in December 2018 and 0.3
percent in January 2018.
    Rosstat gave the following details: 
     RUSSIAN CPI              Jan 19    Dec 18    Jan 18 
     Mth/mth pct change       +1.0      +0.8      +0.3 
     - food                   +1.3      +1.7      +0.5 
     - non-food               +0.6      +0.2      +0.3 
     - services               +1.1      +0.4      +0.1
     Y/Y pct change           +5.0      +4.3      +2.2
     Core CPI y/y pct change  +0.6      +3.7      +0.2
    NOTE - For key Russian indicators click here. 

 (Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh and Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber;
Editing by Jan Harvey)
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