LONDON, (Reuters) - British economic growth probably slowed in the three months that followed June’s Brexit vote, but not by quite as much as the Bank of England expects, a leading think tank said on Friday.
The economy likely grew at a quarterly pace of 0.4 percent in the three months to September, down from the 0.7 percent growth reported for the second quarter, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said.
Last month the Bank of England predicted growth of 0.3 percent in the third quarter.
“While retail sales have been buoyant in recent months, the production sector has acted as a drag on economic growth,” NIESR research fellow James Warren said.
Industrial output fell unexpectedly in August, according to official data earlier on Friday.
“We estimate that output from the production sector declined by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year,” Warren added.
NIESR had previously suggested Britain faced a 50 percent chance of a recession by the end of 2017 because of the vote to leave the European Union.
Reporting by Andy Bruce, editing by David Milliken