LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is on track for a 24-seat majority after Thursday’s general election, polling company Focaldata forecast on Tuesday, down sharply from its forecast last month of an 82-seat majority.
Focaldata predicted that the Conservatives would win 337 seats in the 650-seat parliament, followed by Labour on 235, the Scottish National Party with 41, and the Liberal Democrats with 14 based on its forecasting model and recent polling data.
This compares with a previous forecast on Nov. 27 that the Conservatives would win 366 seats, which assumed no tactical voting by supporters of smaller parties and is based on a so-called MRP analytical model.
“Things are incredibly finely balanced. We calculate (around) 67 seats that are incredibly marginal and are essentially too close to call,” Focaldata said.
YouGov, a larger polling company, is due to publish its closely watched final election forecast around 2200 GMT. YouGov’s last forecast, also on Nov. 27, predicted a 68-seat majority for Johnson.
Datapraxis, another polling company, forecast a 38-seat majority on Dec. 7.
Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Sandra Maler