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YouGov sets out methodology for British election model
May 31, 2017 / 9:58 AM / 8 months ago

YouGov sets out methodology for British election model

LONDON (Reuters) - British pollster YouGov on Wednesday set out the methodology behind its model which produced a shock projection that Prime Minister Theresa May would lose control of parliament in the June 8 election.

Postal voting papers for the UK general election, which is due to take place June 8, 2017, are seen in this illustration picture taken May 26, 2017. REUTERS/Russell Boyce/Illustration

In stark contrast to opinion polls that have until the past week shown May on course for a big win in the snap election she called, the YouGov model suggested May would lose 20 seats and her 17-seat working majority in the 650-seat British parliament.

The polling organisation said the model, developed by its data science team and London School of Economics Professor Ben Lauderdale, employed a technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis to estimate the result in individual constituencies.

The polling company said it would update the first findings of the model later on Wednesday.

Reporting by Paul Sandle; editing by Guy Faulconbridge

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