June 22, 2016 / 8:23 PM / 3 years ago

Brexit poll analysis suggests 'In' is just ahead - J.P. Morgan

A toddler holds a Union flag at a "Britain Stronger in Europe" rally at Birmingham University in Birmingham, Britain June 22, 2016. REUTERS/Andrew Yates

LONDON (Reuters) - Investment bank J.P. Morgan said its analysis of recent opinion polls on Britain’s European Union membership referendum showed the “In” camp was narrowly ahead on Wednesday, a day before Britons go to the polls.

“On the basis of the data in hand, our clean-up process suggests a 2 percentage-point lead on average for ‘Remain’ in the polls published this week, with around 9 percent of the vote undecided,” J.P. Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in an email.

“Our measure of the trend through the week-to-week noise now sits at a 0.6 percentage-point lead for ‘Remain’.”

Barr added that “subjectively”, he saw a roughly 45 percent chance Britain would leave the EU compared to the 25 percent chance priced into betting markets.

Reporting by William Schomberg, editing by David Milliken

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