(Reuters) - Global oil consumption will rise 32 percent through 2040 and fossil fuels will continue to supply the vast majority of energy needs even as use of renewable and nuclear fuels grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast on Thursday.
China and India are expected to account for nearly half of a 56 percent surge in total world energy use in the period from 2010 to 2040, according to the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2013.
“These two countries combined account for half the world’s total increase in energy use through 2040,” said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski.
“This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets.”
Demand growth for decades been focused on the OECD member countries, but emerging economies have seen consumption surge in recent years and become increasing more influential on global prices.
Consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels should jump from 87 million barrels per day in 2010 to 97 million barrels per day in 2020, the EIA forecast, and reach 115 million bpd by 2040.
In 2011, the last time the EIA released its International Energy Outlook, oil demand was forecast to hit 98 million bpd by 2020 and 112 million bpd in 2035.
While fossil fuels overall were seen continuing to supply 80 percent of overall world energy use through 2040, the liquid fuels share was seen falling 6 percent to 28 percent over the period, to 28 percent of global consumption.
Natural gas consumption was seen rising 1.7 percent per year, the fastest growing segment of fossil fuel demand. In 2011, the EIA forecast 1.6 percent per year growth in natural gas use from 2008 to 2035.
Energy consumption from nuclear power and renewables was seen rising by 2.5 percent over the period, the most rapidly expanding sector of overall world energy demand.
Reporting by Matthew Robinson; Editing by David Gregorio