August 10, 2018 / 5:11 AM / a month ago

Japan weather bureau sees 60 percent chance of El Niño emerging in autumn

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s weather bureau said on Friday there is a 60 percent chance that an El Niño weather pattern could emerge during the northern hemisphere autumn, from September to November.

The Japan Meteorological Agency also said there was a 70 percent chance of normal weather patterns during the summer season, without either a La Niña or El Niño.

A U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday that the El Niño weather pattern had a 60 percent chance of emerging during autumn, with the chances increasing to 70 percent during the subsequent winter.

The last El Niño, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years, occurred from around 2015 to 2016 and caused weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods.

Reporting by Yuka Obayashi and Chris Gallagher; editing by Richard Pullin

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