NEW YORK (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley’s economists said on Friday they expect that U.S. economic growth is running at a 1.1% annual pace in the second quarter due to a reversal of the surge in exports and inventories recorded in the first quarter.
Goldman Sachs analysts marked down their estimate on U.S. gross domestic product in the current quarter, but the pace was still twice as fast as Morgan Stanley’s projection.
“Our preliminary expectations for growth in the second quarter sees large drags from net exports and inventories after their contributions in 1Q,” Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a research note.
U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 3.2% annualized rate in the first three months of the year, driven by a smaller trade deficit and the largest accumulation of unsold merchandise since 2015, the Commerce Department said earlier Friday.
Goldman analysts on Friday lowered their second-quarter GDP forecast by 0.5 percentage point to 2.2%. They said a 0.3-point drag in the first quarter from the partial government shutdown “should fully reverse” in the second quarter.
Reporting by Richard Leong in New York; Editing by James Dalgleish