June 11, 2020 / 1:26 PM / in a month

U.S. forecaster sees 60% chance of neutral weather through summer

(Reuters) - There is about a 60% chance that a neutral weather pattern will prevail during the northern hemisphere summer this year and about an even chance of it continuing in the autumn and winter, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday.

The consensus forecast is for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral weather conditions during the summer, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

It said the probability of La Niña, marked by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region and linked with floods and drought, and ENSO-neutral weather was roughly even - about 40% to 50% - for the August-October period.

ENSO-neutral conditions refer to those periods in which neither El Niño nor La Niña are present, often coinciding with the transition between the two weather patterns, according to the CPC.

The El Niño pattern brings a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years.

“Enough uncertainty remains that the chance of La Nina remains lower than 50%, and it is unclear whether oceanic and atmospheric anomalies will lock in and persist,” CPC said.

Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao

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