August 9, 2019 / 12:01 PM / a month ago

Brexit: BNP Paribas raises 'no-deal' probability to 50%

FILE PHOTO: A BNP Paribas logo outside a bank office in Paris, France, August 6, 2018. REUTERS/Regis Duvignau/File Photo

LONDON (Reuters) - BNP Paribas on Friday raised the probability of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union without a deal to 50% from 40%, pointing to a volatile political environment and tight timetable.

The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, but the burgeoning effects of Brexit have had a strong impact on the economy, which shrank unexpectedly in the second-quarter for the first time since 2012.

“With Parliament in recess, the rhetoric is very much in one direction, with no effective counter-balance in the form of MPs actively trying to prevent a disorderly outcome,” the bank’s research team led by Paul Hollingsworth said in a note.

Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan, editing by Karin Strohecker

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