LONDON (Reuters) - Nomura analysts see a high likelihood further negotiations between the United States and China will be needed before a final trade deal is reached, dragging out a dispute between the world’s two biggest economies that has kept investors on edge.
“At this point, we think that both the Trump administration and the Chinese government will have a hard timing backing down from the negotiating positions they have laid out in the last few days,” analysts at the Japanese bank said.
Nomura sees a 10 percent possibility of the U.S. and China coming to an agreement on a comprehensive trade deal this week, and a five percent chance that negotiations “completely break down”.
The bank said there is a 45 percent chance new tariffs on China imports threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump go into effect on Friday but negotiations continue thereafter, and a 40 percent chance the U.S. postpones the tariffs and talks continue.
Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan, Editing by Helen Reid