September 28, 2018 / 5:18 PM / 8 months ago

J.P. Morgan sees lower U.S. GDP, higher inflation due to China tariffs

FILE PHOTO: People are reflected in a mirror as they shop in New York November 29, 2013. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If the United States soon ends up imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports, the nation’s economic growth would be reduced by up to 0.2 percentage point by the end of 2019, while domestic core inflation would rise by 0.2-0.3 point, J.P. Morgan economists said on Friday.

The tariffs would trim the government’s budget gap to $900 billion from $1 trillion in fiscal 2019, they said in a research note.

The economic impact from duties on an estimated $544 billion worth of Chinese-made products could be greater “if business confidence suffers more than we expect,” they wrote.

On Monday, the Trump administration said it would implement tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports on Sept. 24, starting at a 10 percent rate that would grow to 25 percent in 2019.

Beijing retaliated with a plan to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S.-made goods.

J.P. Morgan economists forecast U.S. consumers would pay $40 billion more on imports, which is equivalent to 0.2 percentage point of $20 trillion in gross domestic product.

They said the Federal Reserve will likely assess the effects from tariffs as transitory. If a bump-up in inflation were to materialize, Fed officials may raise their median forecast on the number of interest rate hikes in 2019 to four from their current average of three.

Reporting by Richard Leong; editing by Chizu Nomiyama

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