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Instant View: Senate plan delays corporate tax cut, won't repeal Obamacare mandate
November 9, 2017 / 8:07 PM / a month ago

Instant View: Senate plan delays corporate tax cut, won't repeal Obamacare mandate

(Reuters) - U.S. Senate Republicans’ version of a tax cut bill will delay corporate rate cuts by one year to take effect in 2019, and will not include a repeal of Obamacare’s individual mandate, Republican Senate Finance Committee member Bill Cassidy said.

Story: [L1N1NF1MP]

COMMENTS:

GARY BRADSHAW, PORTFOLIO MANAGER OF HODGES CAPITAL MANAGEMENT IN DALLAS

“I do think the market would like to see this tax cut and if it’s delayed, certainly it is going to have a big effect on small caps, they are probably off the most.”

“I think the market is anticipating that we get this tax cut through, that it would really drive earnings. You look at S&P earnings next year projected to be about $145, you get a tax cut it would probably be (a little above $150). If we don’t have that, earnings are going to be tempered some. Obviously a little of the tax cut has been in the market already and if it’s delayed some of that good news is coming out.”

MICHAEL O‘ROURKE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, JONESTRADING, GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT:

“That was the catalyst for the recent leg down,” he said, referring to the headlines that the Senate tax proposal will delay the corp tax rate cut to 2019.

”Making sure we don’t drive the deficit too much higher is going to be key here. That makes sense why they would push the corporate tax cut back. But at the same time, we’re not getting to the point where we have a plan that seems workable yet.

“The market is due for a breather. It’s been a year since the election. We’ve gone up 22 percent on hopes of what the Trump agenda would bring, and while they’re trying to work toward this thing, they haven’t really accomplished much yet. If progress is not made, the equity market should either pause or correct until meaningful progress is made.”

RICK MECKLER, PRESIDENT OF INVESTMENT FIRM LIBERTYVIEW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT IN JERSEY CITY, NEW JERSEY

“Investors view the corporate tax cut as central to higher near-term stock prices. Once you delay it, the more time that goes on the more further changes can happen. This has been a bit of an emotional roller coaster for investors.

“You’re starting to see some divergence between House, Senate and White House, all three of which are controlled by Republicans. That suggests that whatever is agreed to will probably look quite a bit different if its signed into law.

“The sell off is a quick reaction to how much uncertainty is ahead when it comes to significant corporate tax change.”

JOE SALUZZI, CO-MANAGER OF TRADING AT THEMIS TRADING IN CHATHAM, NEW JERSEY

“Nervous Nellies are going to read the headlines, I have the feeling we are going to be headline driven until they finish this thing off, whenever that may be. If it is a market that has been based on tax cuts, or a good chunk of the rally has been, you would expect it to pullback if there is a potential breakup in the talks or a delay. It looks like this last leg was based on a delay of potentially a year on the Senate side. So totally expected you would see that. But I would also expect it to rip right back if all of a sudden they come out and say they are making progress.

”Other than that there is really nothing fundamentally changed. Nothing new today, economic numbers - nothing was really out of line. It is certainly tax driven. If there is a decent headline that comes out by the end of the day we will rally right back. Maybe people are not nervous, they shouldn’t be, but I hope there is no complacency in the market, I am always worried about that. But I don’t see this as a big deal yet.”

    SUBADRA RAJAPPA, HEAD OF U.S. STRATEGY, SG CORPORATE & INVESTMENT BANKING, NEW YORK

    “In the bond market, we reacted initially to the selloff in Europe. Now we are giving some of it back because of the concerns about the implementation of the tax plan. The difference between House and Senate plans have be reconciled. They have to make the math work with the agreed upon $1.5 trillion projected addition to the deficit. They feel the better start for the corporate tax cut is 2019. We saw some pressure on the high yield spreads the past few sessions with evaluations being frothy. This combined with the tax plan have put some downward pressure on yields. The news on the tax front hasn’t been very positive. The devils are always in the details. There’s a bit more worry about which of the proposals will get though and how. I personally think they would have trouble to get through reconciliation in such short order.”

    PARESH UPADHYAYA, DIRECTOR OF CURRENCY STRATEGY AT AMUNDI PIONEER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, BOSTON

    ”I think the markets are getting a bit jittery over details of the plan as it looks like it is going to be pushed off another year. The initial reaction is disappointment over the Senate plan. Of course that’s not going to be the final plan, but the initial reaction is certainly negative for the dollar.

    “The momentum of the dollar has been hit on concerns about the tax plan, that this could take longer than people had expected. That’s why the dollar momentum seems to have stalled.”

    MARKET REACTION:

    STOCKS: U.S. stocks extended losses in mid-day trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 227.01 points, or 0.96 percent, to 23,336.35, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 25.34 points, or 0.98 percent, to 2,569.04 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 94.96 points, or 1.4 percent, to 6,694.16.

    BONDS: Benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR last fell 2/32 in price to yield 2.3239 percent, from 2.317 percent late on Wednesday. The 30-year bond US30YT=RR last fell 14/32 in price to yield 2.8051 percent, from 2.784 percent late on Wednesday.

    FOREX: The dollar index .DXY fell 0.45 percent, with the euro EUR= up 0.48 percent to $1.1649.

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