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Bonds News

TREASURIES-Yields fall as economic optimism fades, retail sales disappoint

 (New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments)
    By Karen Brettell
    NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on
Tuesday as data showed U.S. retail sales increased less than
expected in October, underscoring expectations that growth may
slow this quarter.
    Retail sales rose 0.3% last month, below economists’
expectations of 0.5%. Spending has been restrained by spiraling
COVID-19 infections and declining household income as millions
of unemployed Americans lose government financial support.

    “This is the first sign that Q4 is going to be pretty weak,”
said Tom Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies in New
York. “The government failed to deliver on any kind of stimulus
package… we’re starting to see the effect of inaction over the
summer now.”
    Optimism over vaccines that claim to have a high success
rate against COVID-19 has boosted risk sentiment in the past
week, sending benchmark 10-year yields to eight-month highs. 
    But the rollout of any vaccine will take time and the
government is unlikely to launch new stimulus until at least
next year.
    Benchmark 10-year yields fell three basis points
to 0.880%, after reaching 0.975% last week.
    The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
 flattened three basis points to 70 basis points.
    The Federal Reserve is expected to shift more of its bond
purchases to longer-dated debt if it views yields as rising too
far and investors will be looking for any signs that this may be
forthcoming when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on
Tuesday at a Bay Area Council Business Hall of Fame awards
event.
    Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida on Monday appeared to
downplay speculation that the Fed will change its $120 billion
program of monthly bond purchases as soon as December.
    He said he was not concerned by a recent small rise in U.S.
Treasury bond yields, and that borrowing costs are still "very
accommodative."
    The Treasury Department will sell $27 billion in 20-year
bonds on Wednesday and $12 billion in 10-year Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday.
    
      November 17 Tuesday 10:48AM New York / 1548 GMT
                               Price                  
 US T BONDS DEC0               172-16/32    0-19/32   
 10YR TNotes DEC0              138-60/256   0-52/256  
                               Price        Current   Net
                                            Yield %   Change
                                                      (bps)
 Three-month bills             0.085        0.0862    -0.003
 Six-month bills               0.0975       0.0989    -0.002
 Two-year note                 99-231/256   0.1752    -0.004
 Three-year note               100-18/256   0.2264    -0.008
 Five-year note                99-80/256    0.3904    -0.018
 Seven-year note               99-20/256    0.6358    -0.023
 10-year note                  99-244/256   0.8799    -0.026
 20-year bond                  95-64/256    1.4012    -0.029
 30-year bond                  99-224/256   1.6303    -0.029
                                                      
   DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS                                
                               Last (bps)   Net       
                                            Change    
                                            (bps)     
 U.S. 2-year dollar swap         8.50         0.25    
 spread                                               
 U.S. 3-year dollar swap         7.75         0.00    
 spread                                               
 U.S. 5-year dollar swap         6.00        -0.25    
 spread                                               
 U.S. 10-year dollar swap       -0.75        -0.50    
 spread                                               
 U.S. 30-year dollar swap      -33.25        -0.50    
 spread (Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio)
  
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