(Updates yields, adds analyst comments and Treasury quarterly borrowing estimate) By Karen Pierog CHICAGO, Nov 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields mostly drifted lower on Monday as investors braced for an action-packed week headlined by Tuesday's presidential election. The benchmark 10-year yield was last down less than a basis point at 0.8502%. "It could be easily looked at as the calm before the storm," said Justin Hoogendoorn, head of fixed income strategy at Piper Sandler in Chicago. Democrat Joe Biden is ahead in national opinion polls, but races are tight in battleground states that could tip the election to Republican President Donald Trump. "A lot is going to depend on the outcome of the election and we might not get that outcome tomorrow night," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco. Both candidates have said they intend to push for more stimulus measures to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. "If you get a blue wave, there could be a much larger stimulus package that in general should be good for the economy, but not necessarily great for Treasuries," Hoogendoorn said, pointing to the market's already big supply increase. The U.S. Treasury announced on Monday it expected to borrow $617 billion in privately held net marketable debt in the fourth quarter, assuming a year-end cash balance of $800 billion. Post election, the Federal Reserve will begin a two-day policy-making meeting on Wednesday as the economy struggles with still big unemployment amid a rise in coronavirus cases. "I don't think the FOMC is going to be anything. I think they want to stay clear of rocking any kind of boat," Rupert said, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee. Friday will bring the October jobs report. The U.S. unemployment rate, which spiked to 14.7% in April, fell to 7.9% in September from 8.4% in August. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was last up less than a basis point at 0.1584%. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, which is viewed as an indicator of economic expectations, was last at 68.90 basis points, 2.9 basis points lower from Friday's close. November 2 Monday 3:15PM New York / 2115 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.09 0.0915 -0.002 Six-month bills 0.1 0.1014 -0.003 Two-year note 99-239/256 0.1584 0.006 Three-year note 99-200/256 0.1994 0.005 Five-year note 99-96/256 0.3765 -0.005 Seven-year note 99-32/256 0.6281 -0.005 10-year note 97-228/256 0.8502 -0.009 20-year bond 95-80/256 1.397 -0.011 30-year bond 94-16/256 1.6273 -0.009 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 7.75 -0.75 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 7.50 -1.25 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 5.50 -1.00 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 1.00 -1.25 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -36.25 -1.75 spread (Reporting by Karen Pierog; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Richard Chang)
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