October 30, 2018 / 3:13 PM / 6 months ago

Democrats gain steam in analyst forecasts for U.S. House races

 (Updates to Tuesday)
    Oct 30 (Reuters) - As of Tuesday, there were 65 U.S. House
of Representatives races widely seen as competitive or leaning
against the incumbent party.
    The outlook for Democrats had improved in 48 of them during
the seven weeks since early September in the eyes of at least
one of a trio of political forecasting groups: Cook Political
Report, Inside Elections and the University of Virginia's Center
for Politics.
    Only seven Republicans saw improved ratings among the
competitive races. Those congressional districts are
Minnesota-8, Illinois-12, Virginia-2, Ohio-1, West Virginia-3,
Texas-23 and Nevada-4.
    In two of those races - Virginia-2 and Ohio-1 - one of the
three groups saw improved chances for the Republican candidate
and another saw odds improving for the Democrat.
    An improvement in the odds for a party does not necessarily
mean its candidate is now favored to win. Some candidates went
from being seen slightly or solidly ahead to being in a race
seen as a "toss up."
    Following are the competitive races where analysts upgraded
the odds of winning for Democrats and Republicans, together with
the number of forecasting groups upgrading each party's chances.
           District               Party with improved chances 
       (incumbent party)            (number of handicappers 
                                     seeing improved odds)     
         Arizona-2 (R)                    Democrat (2)
       California-10 (R)                  Democrat (1)
       California-25 (R)                  Democrat (1)
       California-45 (R)                  Democrat (2)
        Californa-48 (R)                  Democrat (1)
       California-49 (R)                  Democrat (1)
       California-50 (R)                  Democrat (1)
         Colorado-6 (R)                   Democrat (3)
         Florida-15 (R)                   Democrat (3)
         Florida-26 (R)                   Democrat (3)
         Florida-6 (R)                    Democrat (3)
         Georgia-6 (R)                    Democrat (2)
         Georgia-7 (R)                    Democrat (3)
           Iowa-1 (R)                     Democrat (1)
           Iowa-3 (R)                     Democrat (1)
        Illinois-12 (R)                  Republican (2)
        Illinois-14 (R)                   Democrat (2)
         Illinois-6 (R)                   Democrat (3)
          Kansas-2 (R)                    Democrat (1)
            Kansas-3                      Democrat (3)
          Maine-2 (R)                     Democrat (1)
        Michigan-11 (R)                   Democrat (2)
         Michigan-8 (R)                   Democrat (1)
        Minnesota-2 (R)                   Democrat (3)
        Minnesota-3 (R)                   Democrat (3)
        Minnesota-8 (D)                  Republican (3)
     North Carolina-13 (R)                Democrat (2)
      North Carolina-2 (R)                Democrat (2)
      North Carolina-9 (R)                Democrat (1)
       New Jersey-11 (R)                  Democrat (1)
        New Jersey-2 (R)                  Democrat (1)
        New Jersey-3 (R)                  Democrat (1)
        New Jersey-7 (R)                  Democrat (1)
        New Mexico-2 (R)                  Democrat (3)
          Nevada-4 (D)                   Republican (2)
        New York-11 (R)                   Democrat (2)
        New York-19 (R)                   Democrat (1)
        New York-22 (R)                   Democrat (1)
        New York-24 (R)                   Democrat (3)
        New York-27 (R)                   Democrat (3)
           Ohio-1 (R)            Republican (1) / Democrat (1)
          Ohio-12 (R)                     Democrat (2)
       Pennsylvania-1 (R)                 Democrat (2)
      Pennsylvania-10 (R)                 Democrat (2)
      Pennsylvania-17 (R)                 Democrat (2)
       Pennsylvania-6 (R)                 Democrat (1)
       Pennsylvania-7 (R)                 Democrat (1)
          Texas-23 (R)                   Republican (2)
          Texas-32 (R)                    Democrat (1)
           Utah-4 (R)                     Democrat (2)
         Virginia-2 (R)          Republican (1) / Democrat (1)
         Virginia-7 (R)                   Democrat (1)
      West Virginia-3 (R)                Republican (1)
 (Reporting by Jason Lange; editing by Susan Thomas)
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