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Energy

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas holds near 2-week low on less hot weather

 (Adds latest prices)
    July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a two-week low on Friday on forecasts for
less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.
    Prices remained weak even though pipeline exports to Mexico are on track to hit a record high this
month.
    Front-month gas futures fell 0.5 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $1.718 per million British
thermal units, the lowest close since July 1.
    For the week, the front-month was on track to drop about 5% after rising almost 21% in the prior two
weeks.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 88.2 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in July, up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the all-time
monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November. Traders noted output was rising as EQT Corp boosted
production in Appalachia.
    As consumers crank up their air conditioners, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports,
will rise from 90.8 bcfd this week to 93.0 bcfd next week and 93.3 bcfd in two weeks. That, however, was
lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 3.3 bcfd (34% utilization) so far in July,
down from a 20-month low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record 8.7 bcfd in February. Utilization was about
90% in 2019.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, rose as consumers in neighboring countries cranked up their air
conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.4 bcfd so far in July, up from 2.3 bcfd in
June, but still below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports to Mexico
averaged 5.56 bcfd so far this month, up from 5.44 bcfd in June and on track to top the record 5.55 bcfd
in March.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jul 17         Jul 10       Jul 17     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 17    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +42            +45          +44         +37 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              1            2           4            2
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             244            252          220         206          202
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             245            253          222         210          204
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.2           88.0         88.2        89.1         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.6            7.0          6.9         8.2          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.9           95.0         95.0        97.3         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.5          2.5         2.6          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.4            5.7          5.6         4.7          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.1            3.4          3.8         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.3          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          42.7           43.3         45.2        42.3         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.5         21.4        21.5         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.3          4.4         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.2         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    78.4           79.2         81.2        78.2         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         89.4           90.8         93.0        91.4         80.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.79           1.76                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.57           1.67                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.49           2.41                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.28           1.30                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.70           1.66                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.44           1.59                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.96           1.92                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.54           1.57 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.75          23.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                36.25          33.42                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             24.50          26.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   14.58          14.42                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              35.50          42.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   27.50          27.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Richard Chang)
  
 
 
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