June 16, 2020 / 7:00 PM / 2 months ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas fall to 2-mth low on rising output, low LNG exports

 (Adds latest prices)
    June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% to a two-month low on Tuesday as output
slowly edges higher while liquefied natural gas exports remain low.
    Front-month gas futures fell 5.5 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $1.614 per million British
thermal units, their lowest since April 15.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averages just 87.5 billion cubic feet per day
in June, down from a 16-month low of 88.2 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in
November. But on a daily basis, output rose to 88.3 bcfd on Monday from a 19-month low of 85.7 bcfd in
late May.
    With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from 77.4
bcfd this week to 85.1 bcfd next week. That, however, is similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged just 4.1 bcfd (42%
utilization) in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in
February. Utilization was about 90% in 2019.
    U.S. liquefied natural gas exports dropped in recent months after buyers canceled dozens of cargoes
for the summer in April and May when gas was more expensive in the United States than in Europe
 due to global coronavirus demand destruction and record-high European
stockpiles.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, are rising as North American consumers crank up their air
conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.3 bcfd in June, up from a seven-month low of
2.2 bcfd in May but still well below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports
to Mexico averaged 5.2 bcfd this month, up from 4.8 bcfd in May but shy of a record 5.6 bcfd in March.
               
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jun 12         Jun 5        Jun 12     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jun 12    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +87            +93          +111        +87      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              2              3            8           10           9
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             198            191          162         175          165
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             200            194          170         185          174
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.3           87.9         88.1        90.3         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.0            5.8          6.4         7.1          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.3           93.7         94.4        97.4         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.3          2.3         2.4          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.5            5.1          5.1         5.1          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.0            3.8          3.7         5.5          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.5          4.4         4.5          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.8            3.8          3.5         3.8          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          34.5           30.3         38.3        32.2         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.4         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.4         4.3          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9            1.8          2.0         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    70.4           66.3         74.0        68.1         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         82.3           77.4         85.1        81.1         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.64           1.67                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.23           1.28                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.41           2.39                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.10           1.29                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.44           1.48                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.35           1.33                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.90           1.74                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.28           1.35                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             18.50          17.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                18.80          18.76                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             20.25          24.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   12.69          14.25                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              22.50          11.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   22.25          12.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Marguerita Choy)
  
 
 
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