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Energy

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas falls as cooling demand, LNG exports decline

 (Adds closing prices)
    Sept 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Tuesday on forecasts for cooler weather and
lower demand for air conditioning, while a drop in liquefied natural gas exports due to the recent
storms also weighed on prices.
    Front-month gas futures fell 10.3 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $2.527 per million British
thermal units.
    "Hurricane Laura took out a lot of demand from the Texas-Louisiana border right through the center
of the country and it brought some cooler weather behind it," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures
Analysis.
    Refinitiv data indicated 147 cooling degree days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 states over the next two
weeks, declining from 151 CDDs in the prior day. CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average
temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool
homes and businesses.  
    Demand in the Lower 48 states is expected to decline as the weather turns cooler, falling from 85.3
bcfd this week to 83.3 bcfd in the next, according to Refinitiv.
    A big drop in LNG exports from August levels are also weighing on prices, DiDona said, adding,
however, the market will tighten as the LNG facilities come back online again.
    Damage to power lines and communications outages from the storm have hurt offshore oil and gas
production, with natural gas down by 25%, or 676.55 million cubic feet per day, the U.S. Department of
Interior reported on Tuesday.
    An offshore natural gas pipeline that serves four major U.S. Gulf of Mexico production platforms
also remained out of commission, Enbridge Inc said.
    However, Cheniere Energy, the country's top LNG exporter, and Sempra LNG are expected to resume
operations after no major damage was found following Hurricane Laura.
    U.S. output rose to 87.9 bcfd on Monday as many wells in the Gulf resumed operations after Laura,
preliminary data from Refinitiv showed.
            
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Aug 28         Aug 21       Aug 28     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Aug 28    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +37            +45          +77         +66 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              18             19           7           18           18
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             147            151          180         145          135
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             165            170          187         163          153
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.0           87.1         87.3        92.7         79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  7.1            6.7          7.2         7.7          8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.1           93.8         94.5       100.4         87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    1.8            2.0          2.1         3.1          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.2            6.0          5.9         5.5          4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.8            2.9          4.3         6.5          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.6          4.7         4.5          4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.6            3.7          3.9         3.6          3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          42.4           38.1         34.5        33.9         36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.5         21.7        21.5         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.3         4.3          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.0          1.9         2.1          2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    78.5           74.4         71.1        70.0         71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.5           85.3         83.3        85.1         80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.30           2.46                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.30           1.07                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.52           3.54                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.25           1.04                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.07           2.17                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.33           1.22                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           3.17           3.79                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.61           1.36 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.50          28.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                25.50          29.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             29.00          60.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   43.29          32.33                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              40.50          42.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   40.00          41.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)
  
 
 
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