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Energy

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures fall about 2% on surplus, contract expiry

 (Updates with settlement prices, adds analyst comment)
    Sept 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid nearly 2% in volatile trading on Monday, their
last day as the contract for October delivery, on a continued supply surplus and as threat of storms in
the Atlantic Ocean dissipated.
    The decline in futures prices came despite a projected increase in LNG exports.
    Front-month gas futures for October delivery fell 3.8 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $2.101
per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
    The October contract rose as much as 1.7% and fell as much as 5.6% in Monday's session. 
    "It is expiration jiggling," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago,
adding some roll over activity also contributed to the volatility.
    November futures, which will be the front-month beginning on Tuesday, were down 1.2 cents,
or 0.4%, to settle at $2.795 per mmBtu.
    "Although the long-standing supply surplus will likely be contracting significantly next month, we
still see a possible season ending supply of almost 4.1 tcf should next month's temperatures remain
mild," advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
    "... The Atlantic remains devoid of any threatening tropical storm development in possibly forcing
the complex to erase some additional storm premium."  
    Data provider Refinitiv projected supply would rise from 91.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)
last week to 91.2 bcfd this week, before contracting to 91.1 bcfd again in the next week.
    LNG exports were forecast to reach 6.2 bcfd this week, according to Refinitiv data, as vessels
returned to Gulf Coast terminals after Tropical Storm Beta dissipated.

    
                                          
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 25        Sep 18        Sep 25     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 25    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +85           +66          +109        +78 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             79             68           82          76           91
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             73             82           92          70           59
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             152           150          174         146          150
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             85.6           85.4         85.1                     79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.5           5.7          6.0                      8.1
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0                      0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        91.1           91.2         91.1                     87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.0          2.0                      2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           6.0          6.0                      4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          5.7           6.2          7.4                      2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           5.2           5.3          6.0                      4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.7           4.7          6.1                      3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.9           31.2         29.0                     32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.8         22.1                     20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.2          4.2                      4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8           1.8          1.8                      1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1                      0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   68.6           69.2         69.3                     67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        82.4           83.4         84.8                     76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.90           1.49                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.98           1.17                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.99           3.64                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.98           1.10                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.70           1.50                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.08           1.30                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          3.05           3.00                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.67           1.07 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.00         21.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                20.50         19.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             17.00         17.25                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   36.50         29.75                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              54.29         35.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   49.00         38.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Harshith Aranya and K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Lisa
Shumaker)
  
 
 
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