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Energy

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas jumps to 19-month high on cold, rising LNG exports

 (Adds latest prices)
    Oct 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures spiked on Monday to their highest since March 2019 as
the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants jumps with units returning in
Louisiana after Hurricane Delta and in Maryland after maintenance work.
    Traders also noted prices were up on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over
the next two weeks and with output on track to drop to its lowest since July 2018 due mostly to well
shut-ins for Delta.
    Delta slammed into the Louisiana coast late Friday, causing over 878,000 customers to lose power.
There were about 224,000 homes and businesses still without service Monday morning, mostly in
Louisiana.
    Front-month gas futures rose 14.0 cents, or 5.1%, to settle at $2.881 per million British
thermal units, their highest close since March 2019.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states would slide from a 26-month low of
82.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the weekend to a preliminary 82.0 bcfd on Monday due to the
Delta shut-ins.
    The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms started to return
offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. BSEE said that output was now curtailed by 1.3 bcfd, down
from 1.7 bcfd on Sunday.
    In Louisiana, the Cameron and Sabine Pass LNG export plants both took in more pipeline gas over the
weekend and tankers started to return to Sabine. There is also at least one vessel waiting in the Gulf
of Mexico to go to Cameron, according to Refinitiv data.
    In Maryland, Dominion's Cove Point started to exit its three-week annual maintenance outage.

    As LNG feedgas rises and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump
from 84.6 bcfd this week to 94.8 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Friday.   
                
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Oct 9         Oct 2         Oct 9      average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Oct 9     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +63           +75          +102        +87 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             161           119          190         125          143
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             41             57           37          45           34
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             202           176          227         160          177
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             86.8           83.0         83.5        94.9         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.7           6.3          6.3         7.3          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        92.5           89.3         89.8       102.2         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.2           2.3          2.3         2.1          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.9           6.0          6.0         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          7.1           6.5          8.2         6.6          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           6.0           5.7          8.5         7.2          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          6.2           5.4          10.9        8.6          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         31.2           30.7         29.3        28.9         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          22.2           21.9         23.3        22.2         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.1          4.1         4.1          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          2.1         1.9          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.8           69.8         78.4        73.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        87.0           84.6         94.8        87.3         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.25           1.49                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.52           0.67                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.87           3.86                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.57           0.64                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.23           1.19                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        0.74           0.78                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          1.90           2.38                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.66           0.89 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             19.50         22.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                14.50         18.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             45.00         21.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   30.00         24.75                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              36.00         22.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   29.75         28.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski and Cynthia Osterman)
  
 
 
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