May 21, 2020 / 2:56 PM / 15 days ago

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas futures fall over 3% on weaker demand and exports

 (Adds latest prices)
    May 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Thursday as coronavirus lockdowns
continue to depress demand and exports.
    Prices declined despite a report showing a slightly smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and a
continued slowdown in output.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities injected 81 billion cubic feet (bcf)
of gas into storage during the week ended May 15.
    That is less than the 83-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase
of 101 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 87 bcf for the
period.
    The build boosted stockpiles to 2.503 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 19.4% above the five-year average
of 2.096 tcf for this time of year.
    Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.1 cents,
or 3.4%, to settle at $1.710 per million British thermal units.
    Looking ahead, futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading
about 27% and 54% over the front-month, respectively, on expectations the economy will snap back once
governments lift travel restrictions.
    Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 89.6 billion
cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from an eight-month low of 92.9 bcfd in April and an
all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    Refinitiv said U.S. pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.2 bcfd so far in May, down from 2.4 bcfd
in April and an all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 4.6
bcfd so far this month, down from 4.7 bcfd in April and a record 5.6 bcfd in March.
    U.S. LNG exports averaged 6.6 bcfd so far in May, down from a four-month low of 8.1 bcfd in April
and a record 8.7 bcfd in February.
    Buyers in Asia and Europe have canceled over 20 U.S. LNG cargoes to be loaded in July.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          May 15        May 8         May 15     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  May 15    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +83            +103         +101        +87      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              22             22           44          47           42
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             126            125          107          99           98
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             148            147          151         146          140
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              90.1           88.3         88.1        88.5         77.0
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.8            6.0          6.1         7.8          7.8
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.9           94.3         94.2        95.3         84.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            2.1          2.1         2.6          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    4.6            4.9          4.7         4.3          3.9
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.6            5.9          5.7         5.6          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           7.9            5.4          4.6         5.5          5.5
 U.S. Residential                          10.2           5.6          4.0         5.9          6.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          25.1           27.2         30.2        26.8         25.3
 U.S. Industrial                           22.6           21.7         21.5        21.8         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.5            4.4          4.4         4.3          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9            1.8          1.8         1.7          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    72.4           66.1         66.6        66.1         64.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         85.7           79.0         79.1        78.6         71.8
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.83           1.85                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.42           1.48                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.64           2.61                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.46           1.47                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.72           1.74                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.43           1.52                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.88           1.99                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.67           1.69                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             16.75          22.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                18.00          20.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             22.00          28.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   -0.13           8.50                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              11.75          12.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   11.75           9.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Dan Grebler)
  
 
 
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