July 9, 2020 / 3:04 PM / a month ago

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas futures fall with crude prices after storage report

 (Adds latest prices)
    July 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 2% on
Thursday, following a 3% decline in crude futures related to
worries about ongoing coronavirus demand destruction despite a
report showing a smaller-than-usual weekly gas storage build
that was in line with estimates.
    That price drop also came as gas output slowly rises and
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports slowly fall, despite
forecasts for hot weather and high air conditioning demand over
the next two weeks.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S.
utilities injected 56 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into
storage during the week ended July 3.
    That is close to the 58-bcf build analysts forecast in a
Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 83 bcf during the
same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of
68 bcf for the period.
    Front-month gas futures fell 4.5 cents, or 2.5%, to
settle at $1.779 per million British thermal units.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states
averaged 88.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July,
up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below
the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    As the weather heats up, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand,
including exports, will rise from 89.2 bcfd this week to 90.7
bcfd next week.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged just
3.1 bcfd (32% utilization) so far in July, down from a 20-month
low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in
February. Utilization was about 90% in 2019. Flows to Freeport
LNG in Texas fell to zero for a third day in a row the first
time since July 2019 when its first liquefaction train was still
in test mode.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                           Jul 3          June        Jul 3      average    
                                         (Actual)      26(Actual)                 Jul 3     
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +56            +65          +83         +68      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              1            2           4            3
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             255            252          227         206          200
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             256            253          229         210          203
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.4           88.1         87.9        90.9         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.4            6.6          6.7         5.8          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.8           94.7         94.7        96.7         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.4          2.4         2.5          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.4            5.4          5.5         5.2          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.1            3.1          3.1         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.3          4.3         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.6          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          38.9           42.6         43.8        40.3         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.3         21.5        21.4         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.4          4.3         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.0            2.1          2.1         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    74.4           78.3         79.7        76.3         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         86.3           89.2         90.7        89.9         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.78           1.76                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.76           1.78                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.64           2.62                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.34           1.34                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.81           1.80                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.70           1.69                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.01           1.94                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.51           1.45                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             30.75          16.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                34.75          27.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             24.00          22.88                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   24.75          14.25                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              40.58          25.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   31.00          25.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum and
Daniel Wallis)
  
 
 
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