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Energy

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas futures jump to 8-month high on rising LNG exports, hot weather

 (Adds latest gas prices, California gas prices)
    Aug 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped to an eight-month high on Tuesday on rising
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, a decline in output and forecasts for warmer weather and higher air
conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
    Front-month gas futures rose 7.8 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $2.417 per million British
thermal units, their highest close since Dec. 5.
    Power prices in the U.S. West, meanwhile, soared to record highs for a second day during a brutal
heat wave as California utilities urged consumers to keep conserving energy to avoid more rotating
outages with demand expected to near an all-time high on Tuesday. Next-day gas prices at the SoCal
Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL in Southern California, meanwhile, jumped to their highest since February
2019.
    Although U.S. and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 59% jump in
prices at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands so far in
August helped pull U.S. gas up about 36% this month. That made it profitable for more U.S. LNG cargoes
to go to Europe.
    U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas
flowing to the plants climbed to a three-month high of 4.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this
month from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July.
    With temperatures expected to moderate now that the hottest days of summer are past, Refinitiv
projected U.S. demand, including exports, will decline from an average of 89.9 bcfd this week to 88.8
bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Monday.
    On a daily basis output is on track to fall to a one-month low of 87.2 bcfd due to planned work in
the Rockies, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv. 
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Aug 14         Aug 7        Aug 14     average    
                                         (Actual)       (Actual)                  Aug 14    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +43            +58          +56         +44 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              4              5            2           6            6
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             191            188          195         181          172
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             195            193          197         187          178
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              89.0           88.7         88.7        92.9         79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.9            6.7          6.9         8.3          8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.9           95.3         95.6       101.2         87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    1.9            2.0          2.0         3.0          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.6            5.6          5.7         5.5          4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.4            4.7          4.7         5.1          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.4            4.5          4.5         4.5          4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.6         3.6          3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          41.7           41.5         40.3        42.8         36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.6         21.6        21.5         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.0         2.1          2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    77.8           77.6         76.5        79.0         71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         89.7           89.9         88.8        92.6         80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.32           2.23                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.55           1.29                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.53           3.32                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.45           1.06                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.16           2.11                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.48           1.22                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          13.34           6.35                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 0.79           1.88 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             25.50          20.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                29.25          27.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             46.00          120.00                             
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   177.50         100.00                             
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL             1310.56         350.50                             
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   698.00         270.75                             
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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