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Energy

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas steadies as production recovery offsets warmer weather view

 (Recasts, adds comment, closing prices)
    Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures settled little changed on Thursday after forecasts for warmer
weather and below-normal storage build were offset by a recovery in production post-Hurricane Laura.
    Front-month gas futures rose 0.1 cent, to settle at $2.487 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu).
    "With Laura we saw a tremendous amount of supply shut in, but a lot of demand was shut as well, and the
suppliers came back, but at the same time the weather is turning to moderate," said Art Gelber, president of
Gelber & Associates in Houston. 
    Prices had earlier risen over 3% after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. utilities
injected 35 billion cubic feet of gas into storage in the week ended Aug. 28, which was in line with
expectations of a 34 bcf build, but still below normal.
    The five-year (2015-19) average build is of 66 bcf, compared with 77 bcf  in the same week last year.

    Some of the cooler-than-normal weather after heavy rains from Laura turned a bit warmer, providing
support to the market, said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
    Refinitiv data indicated 148 cooling degree days in the Lower 48 states over the next two weeks,
increasing from 144 CDDs the previous day.
    CDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees
Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses.
    Laura, which landed as a major Category 4 storm near the Texas-Louisiana border last week, impacted 60%
of natural gas offshore production, but producers were rapidly ramping up output after there was no
significant damage due to the storm.    
    Natural gas output from the Gulf of Mexico was down by 16%, or 420 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), on
Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago      Five-year     
                                          Aug 28         Aug 21       Aug 28    average Aug 28   
                                         (Actual)       (Actual)                                 
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +35            +45          +77            +66 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                              
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year Norm    30-Year Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              17             20           9             20              21
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             148            144          174            139            129
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             165            164          183            159            150 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                           
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week Last    Five-Year
                                                                                     Year        Average For Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.0           87.5         87.7          92.7            79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  7.1            6.3          6.9            7.7            8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0            0.0            0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.1           93.8         94.6          100.4           87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    1.8            2.0          2.0            3.1            2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.3            6.2          6.0            5.5            4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.8            2.9          4.4            6.5            2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.6          4.7            4.5            4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.6            3.7          3.8            3.6            3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          42.4           38.1         35.5          33.9            36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.5         21.7          21.5            20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.3            4.3            4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.0          1.9            2.1            2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1            0.1            0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    78.6           74.3         72.0          70.0            71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         90.6           85.4         84.3          85.1            80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                              
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                                 
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.15           2.22                                   
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.74           1.36                                   
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.59           3.64                                   
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.54           1.24                                   
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.17           2.08                                   
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.64           1.45                                   
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           3.17           2.85                                   
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.91           1.70 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                            
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                                 
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             29.50          21.25                                   
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                28.00          26.25                                   
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             25.50          27.25                                   
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   105.00         32.20                                   
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              97.00          46.42                                   
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   78.00          33.75                                   
 
 (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci, Sonya Hepinstall and Dan Grebler)
  
 
 
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