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Energy

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas unchanged as rising output offsets higher LNG exports

 (New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments)
    Oct 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Thursday as rising output offset
a smaller than expected weekly storage and an expected increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities injected 76 billion cubic feet
(bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 25.
    That is a little lower than the 79-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and keeps
inventories on track to reach a record 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October.

    Front-month gas futures settled unchanged at $2.527 per million British thermal units.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a two-week high of 87.9
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from a four-month low of 84.9 bcfd last week.
    For the month, however, output was on track to decline for a second time in a row in September to a
four-month low of 87.2 bcfd as storms in the Gulf of Mexico, pipeline maintenance and low prices
earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut
back on new drilling.
    With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 83.5
bcfd this week to 85.8 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and LNG exports, with both Cameron
and Cove Point expected back in a week or so.
    The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.7 bcfd in September. That was the most in
a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7
bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations.

    
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 25        Sep 18        Sep 25     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 25    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +79           +66          +109        +78 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             86             78           75          73          102
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             59             67           99          72           52
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             145           145          174         145          154
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             85.6           86.5         87.0        94.4         80.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.5           6.0          6.5         7.6          7.6
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                        91.1           92.5         93.4       102.0         87.9
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.0           2.2          2.4         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           6.0          6.0         5.9          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          5.7           6.4          7.5         6.3          2.3
 U.S. Commercial                           5.2           5.3          6.1         5.3          6.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.7           4.9          6.3         4.9          7.0
 U.S. Power Plant                         30.9           30.7         29.0        34.3         26.8
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.8         22.1        21.4         21.0
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.2           4.3          4.3         4.2          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.8           1.8          1.9         1.8          1.8
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   68.6           69.0         69.9        72.0         67.7
 Total U.S. Demand                        82.4           83.5         85.8        86.4         76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  1.66           1.74                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.95           1.18                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.82           3.87                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.98           1.16                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.43           1.35                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.06           1.18                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          4.21           5.33                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                0.73           1.16 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             19.00         19.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                19.50         20.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             19.25         22.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   42.64         44.25                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              70.25         56.88                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                  102.00         71.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminsk, Steve Orlofsky and David Gregorio)
  
 
 
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