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Energy

U.S. natgas flat as cooler weather offsets lower output from Hurricane Sally

    Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little
changed on Tuesday as forecasts for milder weather over the next
two weeks offset an output decline as producers shut some Gulf
of Mexico wells before Hurricane Sally smashes into the coast.
    Sally is expected to hit near the Mississippi-Alabama border
early Wednesday. Entergy Corp, the biggest power company
in Mississippi, still has about 50,000 customers without service
in southwestern Louisiana since late August from Hurricane
Laura.
    Front-month gas futures rose 0.5 cents, or 0.2%, to
$2.315 per million British thermal units at 8:10 a.m. EDT (1210
GMT).
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S.
states was on track to slide to a 16-week low of 84.6 billion
cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday due to Sally-related
shutdowns. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental
Enforcement (BSEE) said almost 0.7 bcfd, or about 25%, of Gulf
of Mexico gas production was shut-in on Monday.
    With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand,
including exports, would fall from 84.8 bcfd this week to 81.9
bcfd next week.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants,
meanwhile, has averaged 5.2 bcfd so far in September. That is
the most in a month since May and up for a second month in a row
for the first time since hitting the 8.7-bcfd record high in
February.
    The LNG-export gain comes as Cheniere Energy Inc's
Sabine Pass in Louisiana ramps up after shutting in late August
for Hurricane Laura and as global gas prices rise, making U.S.
gas more attractive in Europe and Asia
following months of U.S. cargo cancellations due to coronavirus
demand destruction.
    Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana, however, has
remained shut since Aug. 27 due to lingering power outages from
Laura. Some analysts say the plant could remain shut through mid
October.
                        
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 11         Sep 4        Sep 11     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 11    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +70           +70          +82         +77 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             43             48           14          24           48
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             81             79          149         130           92
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             124           127          163         154          140
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             88.4           86.8         87.0        93.3         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.8           6.1          6.8         7.8          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        94.2           92.9         93.8       100.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1           2.1          2.1         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.8          6.0         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.8           6.8          6.8         6.5          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.8           4.9          5.3         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0           4.2          5.0         3.8          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         34.3           33.2         28.8        35.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.5         21.7        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4           4.3          4.3         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          1.8         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.0           70.1         67.0        71.3         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        84.0           84.8         81.9        86.4         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.18           1.93                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       1.26           1.26                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.44           3.27                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          1.18           1.16                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.95           1.78                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.38           1.50                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          2.65           1.87                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.59           1.41 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.50         18.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                20.75         18.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             29.50         23.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   32.00         24.50                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              33.25         45.80                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   36.00         27.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
  
 
 
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