July 16, 2020 / 12:25 PM / a month ago

U.S. natgas futures edge up on hot forecasts ahead of storage report

    July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday ahead of a federal storage report
expected to show a smaller-than-usual storage build on forecasts for hot weather to keep air
conditioning demand high over the next two weeks.
    That price rise came despite a slow increase in output and the lowest liquefied natural gas exports
since early 2018.
    Analysts said U.S. utilities injected 47 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the
week ended July 10. That compares with an increase of 67 bcf during the same week last year and a
five-year (2015-19) average build of 63 bcf for the period.
    If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 3.180 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 16.0% above the
five-year average of 2.742 tcf for this time of year. By the end of the injection season in October,
analysts expect U.S. inventories will reach a record high near 4.1 tcf.
    Front-month gas futures rose 1.4 cents, or 0.8%, to $1.792 per million British thermal units
at 8:06 a.m. EDT (1206 GMT).
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 88.1 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in July, up from a 20-month low of 87.0 bcfd in June but still well below the all-time
monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    As consumers crank up their air conditioners as the weather heats up, Refinitiv forecast U.S.
demand, including exports, will rise from 90.8 bcfd this week to 93.5 bcfd next week.
    Pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 3.2 bcfd (33% utilization) so far in July,
down from a 20-month low of 4.1 bcfd in June and a record 8.7 bcfd in February. Utilization was about
90% in 2019.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jul 10         Jul 3        Jul 10     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 10    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +47            +56          +67         +63      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              2            2           4            2
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             252            256          220         206          202
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             253            258          222         210          204
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.2           88.0         88.0        89.1         78.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.6            7.0          7.0         8.2          8.2
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.9           95.0         95.0        97.3         86.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.5          2.5         2.6          2.0
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.4            5.6          5.5         4.7          4.2
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.1            3.4          3.7         5.9          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.3            4.3          4.4         4.4          4.4
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.5
 U.S. Power Plant                          42.7           43.4         45.7        42.3         37.2
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.5         21.5        21.5         20.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.3          4.3         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.2         2.1          2.1
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    78.4           79.3         81.7        78.2         72.0
 Total U.S. Demand                         89.4           90.8         93.5        91.4         80.3
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.76           1.74                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.67           1.69                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.41           2.59                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.30           1.20                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.66           1.66                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.59           1.54                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.92           1.98                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.57           1.34                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.50          20.50                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                33.42          27.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             26.00          24.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   14.42          19.38                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              42.00          43.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   27.00          28.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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