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Energy

U.S. natgas futures fall over 3% to fresh 4-week low ahead of storage report

    Sept 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% to a fresh four-week low on Thursday on
expectations output would start to rise as producers return wells shut-in for Hurricane Sally and on
steady forecasts calling for lower cooling demand over the next two weeks.
    That price decline came ahead of a federal report expected to show a near-normal storage build last
week that will keep stockpiles on track to reach a record high by the end of October.
    Analysts said U.S. utilities injected 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week
ended Sept. 11. That compares with an increase of 82 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year
(2015-19) average build of 77 bcf.
    If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 3.604 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 12.9% above the
five-year average of 3.193 tcf for this time of year.
    Front-month gas futures fell 7.4 cents, or 3.3%, to $2.193 per million British thermal units
at 8:39 a.m. EDT (1239 GMT). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest since Aug. 13.
    Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to rise to 85.3
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Thursday from a two-year low of 84.8 bcfd on Wednesday due to
Sally-related shutdowns.
    With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would fall from 85.3
bcfd this week to 81.9 bcfd next week.
    The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 5.4 bcfd so far in
September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first
time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as global gas prices rise, making U.S. gas more
attractive.
                                 
                                       Week ended     Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                         Sep 11         Sep 4        Sep 11     average    
                                       (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Sep 11    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +79           +70          +82         +77 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                        
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day    Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                  Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                             47             40           14          24           54
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             74             80          149         130           86
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             121           120          163         154          140
                                                                                           
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                     
                                       Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                               Last Year   Average For
                                                                                              Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production             88.4           86.3         85.9        93.3         79.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  5.8           5.7          6.5         7.8          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                        94.2           92.0         92.4       100.0         87.7
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1           2.0          2.0         2.5          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    6.0           5.8          6.1         5.6          4.5
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.8           6.9          7.0         6.5          2.1
 U.S. Commercial                           4.8           4.9          5.3         4.7          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0           4.1          4.9         3.8          3.7
 U.S. Power Plant                         34.3           33.8         28.8        35.8         32.0
 U.S. Industrial                          21.6           21.5         21.7        21.2         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4           4.3          4.2         4.3          4.4
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9           1.9          1.8         1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1           0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                   71.0           70.6         66.8        71.3         67.4
 Total U.S. Demand                        84.0           85.3         81.9        86.4         76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                        
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                  2.06           2.19                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL       0.96           1.29                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL            3.43           3.40                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL          0.90           1.07                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL          1.90           1.92                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL        1.25           1.25                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL          2.80           2.57                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                1.39           1.50 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                      
 Hub                                   Current Day    Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.00         20.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                22.00         18.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             23.25         31.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   36.25         33.42                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              30.50         34.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   36.75         37.25                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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