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Energy

U.S. natgas futures fall with a seasonal cooling of weather in September

    Aug 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid almost 3% on Friday on forecasts of easing demand
with the onset of cooler weather during the first week of September, keeping stockpiles on track for
record highs before winter.
    Traders noted that price decline came despite a continued increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports and a daily drop in output to a five-week low.
    Front-month gas futures fell 6.4 cents, or 2.7%, to $2.288 per million British thermal units
at 8:07 a.m. EDT (1207 GMT).
    For the week, the front-month was down about 2% after soaring 31% over the previous two weeks.
    Although U.S., European and Asian gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 43% jump
in prices at the Netherlands Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and a 53% increase at
the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia so far in August made U.S. LNG more attractive in global
markets, which helped to push up U.S. gas futures by about 28% this month.
    U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas
flowing to the plants climbed to 4.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month from a 21-month
low of 3.3 bcfd in July.
    With a seasonal cooling of the weather in September, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including
exports, would slide from an average of 90.5 bcfd this week and next to 88.4 bcfd in two weeks. That,
however, is higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Thursday because temperatures will remain higher than
usual through early September.
    On a daily basis U.S. output was on track to fall to a five-week low of 87.3 bcfd, according to
preliminary data from Refinitiv that is subject to change later in the day.
            
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Aug 21          Aug         Aug 21     average    
                                        (Forecast)     14(Actual)                 Aug 21    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +50            +43          +60         +49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              5              5            2           6            8
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             204            198          195         181          166
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             209            203          197         187          174
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              89.0           88.6         88.1        92.9         79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.9            6.6          6.8         8.3          8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.9           95.2         94.9       101.2         87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    1.9            2.0          1.9         3.0          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.6            5.7          5.7         5.5          4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.4            4.7          4.9         5.1          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.4            4.5          4.5         4.5          4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.6         3.6          3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          41.7           41.9         41.8        42.8         36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.5           21.6         21.5        21.5         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.1          2.1         2.1          2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    77.8           78.1         78.0        79.0         71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         89.7           90.5         90.5        92.6         80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.35           2.43                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.20           1.18                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             3.25           3.31                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.09           1.13                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           2.21           2.23                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.40           1.34                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           5.10           6.15                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.75           1.70 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             25.50          22.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                28.00          26.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             28.00          32.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   18.75          25.00                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              145.00         189.00                             
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   77.25          188.75                             
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
  
 
 
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