June 15, 2020 / 12:32 PM / 19 days ago

U.S. natgas futures flat as both supplies and demand decline

    June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures traded within a few cents of unchanged on Monday as
slowing production offset lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
    Front-month gas futures remained unchanged at $1.729 per million British thermal units at
8:17 a.m. EDT (1217 GMT).
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 87.5 billion cubic feet
per day in June from a 16-month low of 88.2 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in
November.
    With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from 77.8
bcfd this week to 84.9 bcfd next week. That, however, was lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday of
79.1 bcfd this week and 85.4 bcfd next week.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 4.1 bcfd (42%
utilization) in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 8.7
bcfd in February. Utilization was about 90% in 2019.
    U.S. liquefied natural gas exports dropped in recent months as buyers canceled dozens of cargoes for
the summer with U.S. gas prices trading mostly higher than in Europe
since late April due to demand destruction from the coronavirus and record-high European stockpiles,
among other things.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, are rising as North American consumers crank up their air
conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.3 bcfd in June, up from a seven-month low of
2.2 bcfd in May but still well below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports
to Mexico averaged 5.3 bcfd this month, up from 4.8 bcfd in May but shy of the record 5.6 bcfd in March.
               
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jun 12         Jun 5        Jun 12     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jun 12    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +87            +93          +111        +87      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              3              8            8           10           10
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             191            177          162         175          162
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             194            185          170         185          172
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.3           87.8         87.8        90.3         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.0            5.9          6.5         7.1          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.3           93.7         94.3        97.4         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.3          2.3         2.4          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.5            5.1          5.1         5.1          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.0            3.8          3.8         5.5          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.5          4.4         4.5          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.8            3.8          3.5         3.8          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          34.5           30.7         38.1        32.2         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.4         21.3        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.3         4.3          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9            1.8          2.0         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    70.4           66.6         73.7        68.1         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         82.3           77.8         84.9        81.1         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.67           1.77                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.28           1.49                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.39           2.51                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.29           1.40                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.48           1.57                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.33           1.55                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.74           2.05                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.35           1.46                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             17.75          22.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                18.76          20.03                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             24.00          21.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   14.25           6.38                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              11.00          19.75                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   12.00          20.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
  
 
 
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