June 4, 2020 / 2:15 PM / a month ago

U.S. natgas futures flat as market waits for storage report

    June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little
changed on Thursday as the market waits for direction from a
report expected to show a bigger-than-usual storage build.
    Analysts said utilities likely injected 110 billion cubic
feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended May 29.
That compares with an increase of 118 bcf during the same week
last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 103 bcf for
the period.
    If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 2.722
trillion cubic feet (tcf), 18.8% above the five-year average of
2.292 tcf for this time of year.
    Front-month gas futures remained unchanged at $1.825
per million British thermal units at 9:53 a.m. EDT (1353 GMT).
    Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48
states fell to 88.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in
June, down from a one-year low of 89.3 bcfd in May and an
all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    With the coming of warmer summer weather, Refinitiv
projected U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from 81.4
bcfd this week to 82.1 bcfd next week.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants
was on track to reach 5.2 bcfd on Thursday after dropping to a
13-month low of 3.7 bcfd on Monday. That compares with an
eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of
8.7 bcfd in February.
    Analysts said U.S. LNG exports dropped in recent months
after buyers canceled cargoes due to the collapse in European
prices.
    But after dropping to record lows last week, major European
gas benchmarks soared around 50% this
week. That drove forwards for August and September
 at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) above
the U.S. Henry Hub for the first time since late
April.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          May 29        May 22        May 29     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  May 29    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +110           +109         +118        +103     
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              12             10           17          22           20
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             156            164          127         140          134
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             168            174          144         162          154
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.3           88.6         88.5        89.9         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.1            6.2          6.6         8.0          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.3           94.9         95.1        97.9         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            2.2          2.3         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    4.8            5.1          4.9         4.8          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.0            5.2          5.2         5.2          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6            4.6          4.5         4.6          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0            4.0          3.8         4.1          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          29.5           32.6         33.7        32.0         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.2           21.3         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.7            1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    65.6           68.9         69.7        68.4         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         78.5           81.4         82.1        80.6         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.84           1.58                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.58           1.52                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.65           2.59                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.46           1.44                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.76           1.64                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.73           1.59                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.53           2.44                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.63           1.49                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             25.75          22.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                29.00          25.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             31.00          28.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   17.79          13.39                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              44.88          48.38                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   33.00          40.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino)
  
 
 
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